This paper is a follow-up of some former authors's paper including the one presented at the 52 nd CIPC -2001 and it explores the insertion of natural gas (NG) in the primary energy and electricity generations world and Brazilian matrices. It updates and review matrices through 2000-2020. The projections author's assumptions and parameters were compared to data from DOE-EIA, EIA and MME -energy outlook 2002-2022. The work studies and results are independent but have some accordance with those group data. The importance of the NG phase-in in the Brazilian energy matrices is prospected and explored.The recent several giant oil field discovers by the Brazilian oil company (PETROBRAS-BR) and partners and the growing volume of oil reserves is supporting the Brazilian oil production self sufficiency from the year 2005 and on. The projection of domestic production of 4,4 million barrel / day in 2020 will be ranked among the larger eight to tenth world production and between 13 th and 15 th bigger oil proved reserves.Financial and economic analyses of the alternative electric generation matrices defined the transitional hydro-thermo generation matrix as the best option to expand the electricity offer in Brazil for the period 2000-2020. The Brazilian energy system efficiency is evaluated using the income elasticity of energy demand (IEED) and the results of Brazilian IEED for 2000-2020 are compared to others countries and regions for different time periods, such as 1960-1972, 1976-1885 (1 st and 2 nd oil shock) (WAES-MIT, 1977). The IEED methodology is recommended to evaluate the expected efficiency gain after the results from the recent electrical power rationing between
Recent energy industry privatization and/or deregulation is a worldwide phenomenon derived from technological and economical developments and ecological pressures causing changes in the structure of primary energy and electric energy generation matriced. In Brazil, the capital costs associated with hydraulic sources from primary energy are 38% compared against 3% worldwide. This high concentration, results from the 93% share of this source in electricity generation, as compared to the 3% share in the world. There are not enough state financial resources currently available to finance a suitable expansion of electric energy to supply the increasing electricity demand in the Brazilian energy market. This explains the need for a quick and accelerated change in the Brazilian electric generation matrix, with the expected thermal share to increase from 18% in the year 2000 to 42% in 2010, and 51% in 2020, supported by natural gas (NG) as the main source for thermal generation. By the year 2020, the potential of NG demand for thermal electricity generation will be about 160 million cubic metres per day (Mcmd); that is, 66% of the total NG demand of 240 Mmcd, from which 58% (140 Mcmd) will be imported from Bolivia, Argentina, Peru, Trinidad-Tobago, and/or Venezuela. Brazil is in the small group of countries with low CO2 Emissions, mainly due to limited coal consumption in electricity generation and the large use of hydroelectricity. An increased NG use in thermal electricity generation is still the better option in regards to this emission. Recent carbon fluxes measurements from the Long Range Biosphere and Atmosphere Experiment (LBA) in the Amazonian region have demonstrated the possibility of both young and mature forests being able to sink the 2.1 Gt/yr (3 t/hectare/yr) of CO2, and compensate for all of the CO2, and compensate additional emissions from the NG consumption increase in primary energy (with the NG demand, growing from 10 Mcmd in 2000, to 150 Mcmd in 2010, to 240 Mcmd in 2020). Finally, Brazil, even with a reduction in hydroelectricity generation and an increase of NG use in the primary energy matrix is in a very favourable position to maintain a clean, sustainable, economical, and ecological development. Introduction Natural gas (NG) in the primary energy and the electricity generation matrices is analyzed in relation to the energy sources ill Brazil as compared to the rest of the world. The long-term world primary energy demand matrices are revised in both tendential and ecological scenarios from the years 1850 to 2100. The Brazilian primary energy matrix, the hydroelectricity (HE), and thermoelectricity (TE) generation matrices are reviewed in relation to NG shares during the 1990 - 2000 and 2000 - 2020 periods. NG financial economical and ecological advantages are evaluated, in addition to some energy improvement indicators of boe/inhab and kWh/inhab as a result of the increasing annual growth rates of oil and NG in the Brazilian primary energy matrix for the years 2000 to 2020. The supplies of NG and LNG from domestic and external sources are estimated based on conventional gas pipelines and cryogenic ocean transportation.
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