Oil and Natural Gas and the Energy Matrices-Brazil 2000 - 2020

Abstract

This paper is a follow-up of some former authors's paper including the one presented at the 52 nd CIPC -2001 and it explores the insertion of natural gas (NG) in the primary energy and electricity generations world and Brazilian matrices. It updates and review matrices through 2000-2020. The projections author's assumptions and parameters were compared to data from DOE-EIA, EIA and MME -energy outlook 2002-2022. The work studies and results are independent but have some accordance with those group data. The importance of the NG phase-in in the Brazilian energy matrices is prospected and explored.The recent several giant oil field discovers by the Brazilian oil company (PETROBRAS-BR) and partners and the growing volume of oil reserves is supporting the Brazilian oil production self sufficiency from the year 2005 and on. The projection of domestic production of 4,4 million barrel / day in 2020 will be ranked among the larger eight to tenth world production and between 13 th and 15 th bigger oil proved reserves.Financial and economic analyses of the alternative electric generation matrices defined the transitional hydro-thermo generation matrix as the best option to expand the electricity offer in Brazil for the period 2000-2020. The Brazilian energy system efficiency is evaluated using the income elasticity of energy demand (IEED) and the results of Brazilian IEED for 2000-2020 are compared to others countries and regions for different time periods, such as 1960-1972, 1976-1885 (1 st and 2 nd oil shock) (WAES-MIT, 1977). The IEED methodology is recommended to evaluate the expected efficiency gain after the results from the recent electrical power rationing between