SummaryBackgroundPublished findings on breast cancer risk associated with different types of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) are inconsistent, with limited information on long-term effects. We bring together the epidemiological evidence, published and unpublished, on these associations, and review the relevant randomised evidence.MethodsPrincipal analyses used individual participant data from all eligible prospective studies that had sought information on the type and timing of MHT use; the main analyses are of individuals with complete information on this. Studies were identified by searching many formal and informal sources regularly from Jan 1, 1992, to Jan 1, 2018. Current users were included up to 5 years (mean 1·4 years) after last-reported MHT use. Logistic regression yielded adjusted risk ratios (RRs) comparing particular groups of MHT users versus never users.FindingsDuring prospective follow-up, 108 647 postmenopausal women developed breast cancer at mean age 65 years (SD 7); 55 575 (51%) had used MHT. Among women with complete information, mean MHT duration was 10 years (SD 6) in current users and 7 years (SD 6) in past users, and mean age was 50 years (SD 5) at menopause and 50 years (SD 6) at starting MHT. Every MHT type, except vaginal oestrogens, was associated with excess breast cancer risks, which increased steadily with duration of use and were greater for oestrogen-progestagen than oestrogen-only preparations. Among current users, these excess risks were definite even during years 1–4 (oestrogen-progestagen RR 1·60, 95% CI 1·52–1·69; oestrogen-only RR 1·17, 1·10–1·26), and were twice as great during years 5–14 (oestrogen-progestagen RR 2·08, 2·02–2·15; oestrogen-only RR 1·33, 1·28–1·37). The oestrogen-progestagen risks during years 5–14 were greater with daily than with less frequent progestagen use (RR 2·30, 2·21–2·40 vs 1·93, 1·84–2·01; heterogeneity p<0·0001). For a given preparation, the RRs during years 5–14 of current use were much greater for oestrogen-receptor-positive tumours than for oestrogen-receptor-negative tumours, were similar for women starting MHT at ages 40–44, 45–49, 50–54, and 55–59 years, and were attenuated by starting after age 60 years or by adiposity (with little risk from oestrogen-only MHT in women who were obese). After ceasing MHT, some excess risk persisted for more than 10 years; its magnitude depended on the duration of previous use, with little excess following less than 1 year of MHT use.InterpretationIf these associations are largely causal, then for women of average weight in developed countries, 5 years of MHT, starting at age 50 years, would increase breast cancer incidence at ages 50–69 years by about one in every 50 users of oestrogen plus daily progestagen preparations; one in every 70 users of oestrogen plus intermittent progestagen preparations; and one in every 200 users of oestrogen-only preparations. The corresponding excesses from 10 years of MHT would be about twice as great.FundingCancer Research UK and the Medical Research Council.

Breast cancer incidence rates are high in societies with a Western lifestyle characterized by low levels of physical activity, and by an energy-dense diet rich in total and saturated fat and refined carbohydrates. Epidemiologic studies, so far mostly on postmenopausal women, have shown that breast cancer risk is increased in hyperandrogenic women, with decreased levels of plasma sex-hormone binding globulin, and with increased levels of testosterone and of free estrogens. This paper describes the role of hyperinsulinemia as a physiologic link between nutritional lifestyle factors, obesity, and the development of a hyperandrogenic endocrine profile, and reviews evidence that may or may not support the theory that chronic hyperinsulinemia is an underlying cause of breast cancer. An hypothesis is presented, stipulating that breast cancer risk is increased not only in hyperandrogenic postmenopausal women, but also in premenopausal women with mild hyperandrogenism and normal (ovulatory) menstrual cycles. The author suggests further investigation as to whether there is a positive association between risk of breast cancer before menopause and subclinical forms of the polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), and to what extent diet and physical activity during childhood, by modulating the degree of insulin resistance during adolescence, may or may not be determinants of a PCO-like hyperandrogenic endocrine profile persisting into adulthood.

Insulin resistance may be a risk factor for breast cancer, possibly through increased levels of oestrogens or insulin-like growth factor I. Insulin resistance has been associated with obesity, hypertension, dyslipidaemia and impaired glucose tolerance. We studied the relation of these factors to breast cancer risk in a prospective cohort study of 9738 women. Menopausal status was defined a priori, and 112 cases of invasive breast carcinoma occurred in women who were premenopausal at baseline and 157 cases in subjects who were peri/postmenopausal. Relative risks (RR) for breast cancer were calculated by Cox's proportional hazards analysis for different quartiles of height, weight, body mass index, blood pressure, pulse rate and serum levels of total cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting blood glucose and glucose at 120 min after an oral dose of glucose. Peri/postmenopausal women had a significantly increased age-adjusted relative risk of breast cancer associated with height (RR = 1.78 for the highest versus lowest quartile), and the RR was increased over quartiles of cholesterol levels (P-value for trend: 0.05). No other significant associations were found. Adjustments for potential confounding factors or restriction of the analysis to cases and person-years before 55 years of age (premenopausal women), or after 55 years (peri/postmenopausal women), did not change

No abstract