This study aimed to assess which method of wild waterbird surveillance had the greatest probability of detecting highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 during a period of surveillance activity, the cost of each method was also considered. Lake Constance is a major wintering centre for migratory waterbirds and in 2006 it was the site of an HPAI H5N1 epidemic in wild birds. Avian influenza surveillance was conducted using harmonised approaches in the three countries around the lake, Austria, Germany and Switzerland, from 2006–2009. The surveillance consisted of testing birds sampled by the following methods: live birds caught in traps, birds killed by hunters, birds caught in fishing nets, dead birds found by the public and catching live Mute Swans (Cygnus olor); sentinel flocks of Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) were also used. Scenario tree analysis was performed including sensitivity analysis, followed by assessment of cost-effectiveness. Results indicated that if HPAI H5N1 was present at 1% prevalence and assuming HPAI resulted in bird mortality, sampling dead birds found by the public and sentinel surveillance were the most sensitive approaches despite residual uncertainty over some parameters. The uncertainty over the mortality of infected birds was an influential factor. Sampling birds found dead was most cost-effective, but strongly dependent on mortality and awareness of the public. Trapping live birds was least cost-effective. Based on our results, we recommend that future HPAI H5N1 surveillance around Lake Constance should prioritise sentinel surveillance and, if high mortality is expected, the testing of birds found dead.

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Switzerland is currently porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) free, but semen imports from PRRSV-infected European countries are increasing. As the virus can be transmitted via semen, for example, when a free boar stud becomes infected, and the risk of its import in terms of PRRSV introduction is unknown, the annual probability to accidentally import the virus into Switzerland was estimated in a risk assessment. A quantitative stochastic model was set up with data comprised by import figures of 2010, interviews with boar stud owners and expert opinion. It resulted in an annual median number of 0.18 imported ejaculates (= imported semen doses from one collection from one donor) from PRRSV-infected boars. Hence, one infected ejaculate would be imported every 6 years and infect a mean of 10 sows. These results suggest that under current circumstances, there is a substantial risk of PRRSV introduction into Switzerland via imported boar semen and that measures to enhance safety of imports should be taken. The time from infection of a previously negative boar stud to its detection had the highest impact on the number of imported 'positive' ejaculates. Therefore, emphasis should be placed on PRRSV monitoring protocols in boar studs. Results indicated that a substantial increase in safety could only be achieved with much tighter sampling protocols than currently performed. Generally, the model could easily be customized for other applications like other countries or regions or even sow farms that want to estimate their risk when purchasing semen from a particular boar stud.

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