This article presents a system for forecasting increasing tension and war in the Middle East and illustrates to those studying crisis-prone regions of the world an early warning system for predicting international tension. In the first part of the article are discussed the theory, methodology, and results obtained in testing the system, while the appendices present the more technical aspects. In the conclusion of this article it is held that crises follow stable behavioral patterns, and that although the analysis may deal with international actors in a mechanical fashion, it is the most viable and valid solution to a critical human problem. 193 Downloaded by [University of Otago] at 06:38 08 October 2015 194 E. E. AZAR ET AL.
Although the Korean conflict is a product of the cold war, the struggle on the peninsula has outlasted the superpower rivalry that created it. Its survival is not merely a question of lag-time; instead, it reflects the fact that the Korean conflict had already undergone a number of fundamental structural changes, beginning as early as the 1950s. These changes transformed the nature of the conflict on the peninsula, while leaving it cloaked in much of the same outward apparel. The cold war became a reinforcing mechanism, rather than the cause, of the continuing crisis. This is not to deny that the revolutionary transformation of global power relations has affected the situation in Korea. In a sharp departure from the previous pattern of almost unremitting militray confrontation and mutual denial, both Korea have in the last few years resumed high-level political talks and in 1991 reached a Basic Agreement on Non-aggression, Reconciliation, and Cooperation. The agreement was followed by the joint declaration of a nuclear free zone on the peninsula. Moreover, the two governments agreed to form a military committee to manage inter-Korean con-W would like to thank the United States Institute of Peace for supporting this research.This paper is part of a larger research project on arms control on the Korean peninsula which is funded by a grant from the United States Institute of Peace.
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