A System for Forecasting Strategic Crises: Findings and Speculations About Conflict in the Middle East

Azar, Edward E.; McLaurin, R. D.; Havener, Thomas; Murphy, Craig N.; Sloan, Thomas J.; Wagner, Charles H.

doi:10.1080/03050627708434464

Cited by 13 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…For instance, DARPA's EWAMS research evaluated three WEIS-based measures (conflict, tension, and uncertainty) to determine the "alert status" of any dyad. Azar et al (1977) took a similar approach based on whether behaviors measured with the COPDAB event scale fell outside a range of "normal" interactions for the dyad. More recent efforts have used increasingly advanced econometric timeseries methods that model interval-level indicators of events as an autoregressive time series with disturbances.…”

Section: Structural and Dynamic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cluster-Based Early Warning Indicators for Political Change in the Contemporary Levant

Schrodt

Gerner

2000

Am Polit Sci Rev

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We use cluster analysis to develop a model of political change in the Levant as reflected in the World Event Interaction Survey coded event data generated from Reuters between 1979 and 1998. A new statistical algorithm that uses the correlation between dyadic behaviors at two times identifies clusters of political activity. The transition to a new cluster occurs when a point is closer in distance to subsequent points than to preceding ones. These clusters begin to “stretch” before breaking apart, which serves as an early warning indicator. The clusters correspond well with phases of political behavior identified a priori. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the clustering and early warning measures are not random; they perform very differently in simulated data sets with similar statistical characteristics. Our study demonstrates that the statistical analysis of newswire reports can yield systematic early warning indicators, and it provides empirical support for the theoretical concept of distinct behavioral phases in political activity.

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Section: Structural and Dynamic Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cluster-Based Early Warning Indicators for Political Change in the Contemporary Levant

Schrodt

Gerner

2000

Am Polit Sci Rev

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“…Scholars sang the praises of one or the other level. One strand of the IR literature emphasized system-wide structural constraints verging on determinism (e.g., Morgenthau, 1948;Kaplan, 1957;Singer, Bremer, and Stuckey, 1972;Waltz, 1979, and an array of works inspired by Waltz's Theory of International Politics in the last two decades; Mearsheimer, 1990; and, with respect to conflict, Azar et al, 1977).…”

Section: Levels Of Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

ISA Presidential Address

Brecher

1999

Int Studies Q

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The state of International Studies as the 20 th century draws to a close is disconcerting. Among the shortcomings are intolerance of competing paradigms, models, methods, and findings; a closed-mind mentality; a tendency to research fashions; the increasingly-visible retreat from science in International Studies; and the low value placed by most scholars on cumulation of knowledge.Flawed dichotomies are pervasive: theory versus history as approaches to knowledge; deductive versus inductive paths to theory; a horizontal (breadth) versus vertical (in-depth) focus of inquiry, based upon aggregate data (quantitative) vs. case study (qualitative) methods of analysis, using large 'N' vs. small 'N' clusters of data; system vs. actor as the optimal level of analysis, and closely related, unitary vs. multiple competing actors; rational calculus vs. psychological constraints on choice, and the related divide over reality vs. image as the key to explaining state behavior; and neo-realism vs. neo-institutionalism as the correct paradigm for the study of world politics.Without the integration of knowledge, revised from time to time in the light of fresh theoretical insights, improved methods, and new evidence, International Studies is destined to remain a collection of bits and pieces of explanation of reality and behavior.In this spirit, an attempt to overcome the dichotomies and to achieve synthesis, along with cumulation, was the raison d' etre of the International Crisis Behavior Project, now entering its 25 th year of systematic research on crisis, conflict and war in the 20 th century. From the flawed dichotomies has emerged synthesis in paths to theory, methodologies, the testing of propositions, and cumulation of knowledge, one demonstration that it is possible to transform International Studies into a genuine social science discipline. Wilkenfeld for their valuable comments on this paper. While musing about this year's ISA conference, two questions kept recurring: what message should I attempt to communicate to colleagues in the International Studies community?, and what can I say that is different from my predecessors but is, at the same time, stimulating?; for that, along with curiosity, I assume, perhaps naively, is why most of us come to hear a presidential address.Like all of you, I am acutely aware of the impending end of a century and a millennium. However, unlike some, perhaps many, I have long been dissatisfied with the "state of the field" and convinced of the need to break out of what seems to me an academic morass. This conjunction-a turning point in the human experience, at least in chronological terms, and disquiet about International Studiesprovided the catalyst to today's presentation.As the twentieth century draws to a close, it seems timely to reflect on "where have we gone wrong?" The question is not new, but it continues to perplex. The answers, unfortunately, are as numerous as our contentious schools, divided by epistemology, methodology, and ideology, along with idiosyncratic elements like pers...

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“…Change may be defined as a shift from, or an alteration of, an existing pattern of interaction between two or more actors in the direction of greater conflict or cooperation. It is indicated by acts or events which exceed the bounds of normal fluctuations or a 'normal relations range' (Azar, 1972(Azar, ? et a/., 1977.…”

Section: International Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

System and crisis in international politics

Brecher¹,

Yehuda²

1985

Rev. Int. Stud.

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This paper is an effort to overcome a major obstacle to a creative system orientation in international relations—a dearth of knowledge about system-level change. To accomplish this goal two tasks are necessary. First, building upon earlier contributions, a new definition of international system is offered and its essential properties—structure, process, equilibrium, stability—are discussed. The second requirement is to create a new approach to crisis and to forge links between its unit and system levels, the focus of the rest of the paper. This, in turn, will facilitate the analysis of crises as catalysts to system change, that is, as international earthquakes.

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A System for Forecasting Strategic Crises: Findings and Speculations About Conflict in the Middle East

Cited by 13 publications

References 3 publications

Cluster-Based Early Warning Indicators for Political Change in the Contemporary Levant

Cluster-Based Early Warning Indicators for Political Change in the Contemporary Levant

ISA Presidential Address

System and crisis in international politics

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