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As a new type of bridge foundation, rectangular closed diaphragm walls (RCDWs) provide an efficient solution to controlling the settlement of high-speed railway bridges. However, the scant research on settlement prediction for RCDWs has hindered their application in practical engineering. This paper attempts to establish a simplified approach for predicting the settlement of RCDWs. First, a simplified analytical model of an RCDW is established in accordance with the load transfer approach. Then, the load transfer curves and related coefficients of skin friction and foot resistance are discussed, and special attention is given to the determination of inner skin friction based on the results of a model test. In addition, an iterative procedure is applied to facilitate the solution process; moreover, a program named SPFRCDW, written in Matlab, is developed to estimate the settlement of RCDWs based on the proposed approach. Finally, a case study is conducted to verify the calculation results of SPFRCDW. The results predicted by the proposed method are shown to agree well with the measured data.