Background Prediabetes has become a pandemic. This study aimed to identify a better predictor for the incidence of prediabetes, which we hypothesize to be the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, a simplified insulin resistance index. We compared its predictive value with the other common risk factors of prediabetes. Methods The participants of this analysis were derived from the Risk Evaluation of cAncers in Chinese diabeTic Individuals: a lONgitudinal (REACTION) study. A total of 4543 participants without initial prediabetes or diabetes were followed up for 3.25 years. Using multivariate logistic regression model, the associations between baseline obesity, lipid profiles and non-insulin-based insulin resistance indices with the incidence of prediabetes were analyzed. To assess which is better predictor for the incidence of prediabetes, the area under curves (AUCs) calculated from the receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were used to evaluate and compare with the predictive value of the different indices. Results During the 3.25 years, 1071 out of the 4543 participants developed prediabetes. Using the logistic regression analysis adjusted for some potential confounders, the risk of incidence of prediabetes increased 1.38 (1.28–1.48) fold for each 1–SD increment of TyG index. The predictive ability (assessed by AUCs) of TyG index for predicting prediabetes was 0.60 (0.58–0.62), which was superior to the indices of obesity, lipid profiles and other non-insulin-based insulin resistance indices. Although the predictive ability of the TyG index was overall similar to fasting plasma glucose (FPG) (P = 0.4340), TyG index trended higher than FPG in females (0.62 (0.59–0.64) vs. 0.59 (0.57–0.61), P = 0.0872) and obese subjects (0.59 (0.57–0.62) vs. 0.57 (0.54–0.59), P = 0.1313). TyG index had superior predictive ability for the prediabetic phenotype with isolated impaired glucose tolerance compared with FPG (P < 0.05) and other indices. Furthermore, TyG index significantly improved the C statistic (0.62 (0.60–0.64)), integrated discrimination improvement (1.89% (1.44–2.33%)) and net reclassification index (28.76% (21.84–35.67%)) of conventional model in predicting prediabetes than other indices. Conclusions TyG could be a potential predictor to identify the high risk individuals of prediabetes.
Background: Both baseline blood pressure (BP) and cumulative BP have been used to estimate cardiovascular event (CVE) risk of higher BP, but which one is more reliable for recommendation to routine clinical practice is unclear.Methods: In this prospective study, conducted in the Kailuan community of Tanshan City, China, a total of 95,702 participants free of CVEs at baseline (2006–2007) were included and followed up until 2017. Time-weighted cumulative BP that expresses the extent of cumulative BP exposure is defined as the sum of the mean of two consecutive systolic or diastolic BP times the interval between the two determinations, then normalized by the total follow-up duration. Incident CVEs during 2006–2017 were confirmed by review of medical records. We performed a competing risk regression analysis to assess CVE risk of the different durations of higher BP exposure. ROC analysis was performed to assess the predictive value of higher BP on CVE occurrence.Results: We found that when the risk of higher BP on CVE occurrence was estimated based on time-weighted cumulative BP, the hazard ratios (HRs) increased with the increase in duration of higher BP exposure in each of the four BP groups: <120/<80, 120–129/<80, 130–139/80–89, and ≥140/≥90 mmHg; this time trend also occurred across the four different BP groups, with the higher BP group exhibiting CVE risk earlier during the follow-up. These results were confirmed by the same analysis performed on participants without baseline hypertension. However, such reasonable time trends did not occur when a single baseline BP was used as the primary estimation. We also demonstrated that the predictive values of baseline systolic and diastolic BP that predict CVE occurrence were only 0.6–3.2 and 0.2–3.1% lower, respectively, than those of cumulative BP combined with baseline BP during follow-up.Conclusions: Baseline BP remains a useful indicator for predicting future occurrence of CVEs. Nevertheless, time-weighted cumulative BP could more reliably estimate the CVE risk of higher BP exposure than baseline BP.
Background Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) usually have higher blood viscosity attributed to high blood glucose that can decrease blood supply to the pancreas. A mild increase in blood pressure (BP) has been reported as a potential compensatory response that can maintain blood perfusion in the islet. However, how BP influences beta-cell function in T2DM subjects remains inconsistent. This study aimed to examine the relationship between BP and beta-cell function in patients with T2DM under different HbA1c levels. Methods This is a cross-sectional study of 615 T2DM patients, whose clinical data were extracted from hospital medical records. Beta-cell function was assessed by insulin secretion-sensitivity index-2 (ISSI2). Multivariable linear regression analysis and restricted cubic splines (RCS) analysis were performed to identify the association between systolic BP (SBP) and ISSI2. Mediation analysis was performed to determine whether higher SBP could reduce blood glucose by enhancing beta-cell function. Results After adjustment of potential confounders, in participants with HbA1c ≥ 10%, the SBP between 140 to150 mmHg had the highest log ISSI2 (b = 0.227, 95% CI 0.053–0.402), an association specific to participants with < 1 year duration of diabetes. RCS analyses demonstrated an inverted U-shaped association between SBP and ISSI2 with the SBP at 144 mmHg corresponding to the best beta-cell function. This higher SBP was “paradoxically” associated with lower 2 h postprandial blood glucose (PBG) when SBP < 150 mmHg that was almost exclusively mediated by ISSI2 (mediating effect = − 0.043, 95%CI − 0.067 to − 0.018; mediating effect percentage = 94.7%, P < 0.01). SBP was however not associated with improvement in ISSI2 or 2 h PBG in participants with HbA1c < 10%. Conclusions In early stage of diabetes, a slightly elevated SBP (140–150 mmHg) was transiently associated with better beta-cell function in T2DM patients with HbA1c ≥ 10% but not in those with HbA1c < 10%.
BackgroundPrevious studies, in which the data were collected about half a century ago, suggested that elevated low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is not associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients over 70 years old. However, what is the relationship between LDL-C and CVD risk in a contemporary population aged over 70 years has not been well examined in China. MethodsThe China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) is an ongoing nationally representative study. In this analysis, participants of CHARLS who did not taking statins and did not have heart disease and stroke at 2011 were include and were followed up to 2018. The outcome of this analysis was occurrence of CVD at follow up, which include heart disease and stroke. Cox regression was used to assess the harmful effect of LDL-C on CVD occurrence. We calculated e-values to quantify the effect of unmeasured confounding on our results. ResultsOf the 9,631 participants, 15.2% (N=1,463) were aged over 70 years and 52.5% (N=5,060) were female. During the 7 years follow-up, 1,437 participants had a rst CVD attack. Risk of CVD occurrence increased 8% with each 10 mg/mL elevation in LDL-C in whole participants (adjusted HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.06-1.10) and age groups of ≥70 years, 60-69years and <60 years. Similar results were observed in subgroup analyses, in which participants were strati ed by sex, hypertension, diabetes and chronic kidney disease. According to the restricted cubic spline, we noted a U-shaped relationship between LDL-C and risk of CVD occurrence in group over 70 years old, however, we further found that in the left side of U-shape curve, LDL-C was not associated with occurrence of CVD and its attribution to CVD occurrence was only 2.1%, which indicated that lower level of LDL-C could not increase the risk of CVD occurrence as it was demonstrated by a U-shape association. E-value analysis suggested robustness to unmeasured confounding. ConclusionsIn contemporary society of China, elevated the level of LDL-C also increased the risk of CVD in participants over 70 years old as in the relatively younger participants. These results should strengthen guideline recommendations for the use of lipid lowering therapies in those elderly.
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