Forecasting is a part of statistical modelling that is widely used in various fields because of its benefits in decision-making. The purpose of forecasting is to predict the future values of certain variables that vary with time using its previous values. Forecasting is related to the formation of models and methods that can be used to produce a good forecast. This research is a survey paper research that used a systematic mapping study and systematic literature review. Generally, time series research uses linear time series models, specifically the autoregressive integrated moving average model that has long been used because it has good forecasting accuracy. The successfulness of the Box–Jenkins methodology is based on the reality that various models can imitate the behaviour of various types of series, usually without requiring many parameters to be estimated in the final choice of the model. However, the assumption of stationarity that must be met makes this method inflexible to use. With the advances in computers, forecasting methods from stochastic models to soft computing continue to develop and extend. Soft computing for forecasting can provide more accurate results than traditional methods. Moreover, soft computing has many advantages in terms of the amount of data that can be analysed and the time- and cost-effectiveness of the process.
Tujuan penelitian ini adalah meningkatkan pemahaman serta mengembangkan karakter mahasiswa melalui pembelajaran berbasis proyek. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian tindakan kelas yang dilaksanakan dalam 2 siklus pada mahasiswa Program Studi Matematika peserta perkuliahan Analisis Runtun Waktu di Jurusan Matematika FMIPA Universitas Negeri Semarang tahun akademik 2014/2015 sejumlah 43 mahasiswa. Prosedur penelitian tindakan mencakup 4 tahap, yaitu (1) perencanaan, (2) pelaksanaan tindakan, (3) observasi, dan (4) evaluasi-refleksi. Instrumen penilaian berupa tes, lembar observasi serta kuesioner. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan terjadi peningkatan pemahaman mahasiswa yang ditunjukkan dengan peningkatan nilai rata-rata hasil belajar baik pada hasil proyek kelompok yaitu 72,2 pada siklus I dan meningkat menjadi 86,09 pada siklus II, maupun rata-rata hasil tes individu, yaitu 78,77 pada siklus I menjadi 83,56 pada siklus II. Serta peningkatan presentase jumlah mahasiswa yang memperoleh hasil belajar lebih dari 80 yaitu terdapat 20 mahasiswa (46,5%) pada siklus I menjadi 37 mahasiswa (86%) pada siklus II. Disamping itu, penelitian ini menumbuhkan karakter disiplin, rasa ingin tahu, kerjasama (toleran dan demokratis), tanggung jawab, jujur, peduli, serta cinta tanah air pada mahasiswa.The purpose of this study is to improve and developed the students abillity and character through project-based learning. This research was an action research performed in 2 cycles on 43 students in Analisis Runtun Waktu subject in Mathematics Department, Semarang State University. Action research procedure includes four stages: (1) planning, (2) implementation of the action, (3) observation, and (4) evaluation-reflection. Instrument used are tests, observation sheet and questionnaire. The results showed there are increase in student understanding shown by the increase in the average value of learning outcomes either on the results of the project groups: 72,2 in the first cycle and increased to 86,09 in the second cycle, and the average results of the individual tests, that is 78,77 in the first cycle to 83,56 in the second cycle. And increasing the percentage of the number of students who gained more than 80 learning outcomes which there are 20 students (46,5%) in the first cycle to 37 students (86%) in the second cycle. In addition, this study raise the character of discipline, curiosity, cooperation (tolerant and democratic), responsibility, honesty, caring, and love of the homeland to the student.
Tujuan penelitian ini adalah menentukan ketepatan metode regresi logistik dan CHAID dengan pembobotan sampel pada klasifikasi status angkatan kerja Kabupaten Temanggung 2015. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah angkatan kerja Kabupaten Temanggung 2015. Data dalam penelitian ini diperoleh dari Sakernas Kabupaten Temanggung 2015. Variabel dependen dalam penelitian ini adalah angkatan kerja, sedangkan variabel independennya adalah klasifikasi desa/kelurahan, hubungan dengan kepala rumah tangga, jenis kelamin, umur, status pernikahan, pendidikan, pelatihan kerja, dan pengalaman kerja. Dari analisis regresi logistik diperoleh persamaan, sedangkan anlalisi CHAID menghasilkan pohon klasifikasi. Persamaan dan pohon klasifikasi tersebut dapat digunakan untuk memprediksi variabel dependen. Kesalahan klasifikasi dihitung menggunakan APER (Apparent Error Rate), kemudian ketepatan klasifikasi dapat diperoleh dengan rumus 1 – APER. Ketepatan regresi logistik dan CHAID dengan pembobotan sampel secara berturut-turut adalah 96,4% dan 96,6%. Hal ini menunjukkan ketepatan metode CHAID pada klasifikasi status angkatan kerja Kabupaten Temanggung 2015 lebih tinggi dibandingkan regresi logistik.The purpose of this study is to determine the accuracy of logistic regression and CHAID with sample weighting on Temanggung regency labor status classification in 2015. The population of this study is labor of Temanggung Regency in 2015. The data of this study is obtained from Sakernas of Temanggung Regency in 2015. The dependent variable of this study is labor status, whereas the independent variables of this study are domicile region, relation with family head, gender, age, marriage status, education level, job training, and job experience. Logistic regression analysis results a mathematic equation, and CHAID method result a classification tree. Those result can predict the dependent variable. Classification error is calculated using APER (Apparent Error Rate), then the accuracy can be calculated by 1- APER. Accuracy of logistic regression and CHAID with sample weighting respectively are 96,4% and 96,6%. This show that accuracy of CHAID is greater than logistic regression.
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