The dengue disease is caused by dengue virus, and there is no specific treatment. The medical care by experienced physicians and nurses will save life and will lower the mortality rate. A dengue vaccine to control the disease is available in Thailand since late 2016. A mathematical model would be an important way to analyze the effects of the vaccination on the transmission of the disease. We have formulated an SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model of the transmission of the disease which includes the effect of vaccination and used standard dynamical modelling methods to analyze the effects. The equilibrium states and their stabilities are investigated. The trajectories of the numerical solutions plotted into the 2D planes and 3D spaces are presented. The main contribution is determining the role of dengue vaccination in the model. From the analysis, we find that there is a significant reduction in the total hospitalization time needed to treat the illness.
The SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) model is used to describe the transmission of dengue virus. The main contribution is determining the role of the rainfall in Thailand in the model. The transmission of dengue disease is assumed to depend on the nature of the rainfall in Thailand. We analyze the dynamic transmission of dengue disease. The stability of the solution of the model is analyzed. It is investigated by using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria. We find two equilibrium states: a disease-free state and an endemic equilibrium state. The basic reproductive number (R0) is obtained, which indicates the stability of each equilibrium state. Numerical results taking into account the rainfall are obtained and they are seen to correspond to the analytical results.
SummaryDengue, similar to other arboviral diseases, exhibits complex spatiotemporal dynamics. Even at town or village level, individual-based spatially explicit models are required to correctly reproduce epidemic curves. This makes modelling at the regional level (province, country or continent) very difficult and cumbersome. We propose here a first step to build a hierarchized model by constructing a simple analytical expression which reproduces the model output from macroscopic parameters describing each 'village'. It also turns out to be a good approximation of real urban epidermic outbreaks. Subsequently, a regional model could be built by coupling these equations on a lattice.keywords dengue, urban epidermics, multi-scale models, Easter Island, Brazil, Lima
Dengue disease is found in tropical and subtropical regions around the world. Dengue virus is the cause of dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and dengue shock syndrome. It consists of 4 serotypes: DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, and DEN-4. There are two modes of transmission for dengue virus in mosquito: horizontal transmission and vertical transmission. The mosquito can be infected when it bites an infectious human by horizontal transmission, but there can also be vertical transmission through sexual contact with an infected mosquito. This research presents a control mechanism based on our previously developed dengue model with vertical transmission. The two policies, namely vaccination and insecticide administration (Policy 1) and isolation and insecticide administration (Policy 2) are considered. The use of Pontryargin's maximum principle allowed necessary and optimality conditions, thus facilitating the optimal control to be developed. Numerical solutions of our control systems and the conclusions of our two policies are presented.
Dengue fever is a disease that has spread all over the world, including Thailand. Dengue is caused by a virus and there are four distinct serotypes of the virus that cause dengue DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4. The dengue viruses are transmitted by two species of the Aedes mosquitoes, the Aedes aegypti, and the Aedes albopictus. Currently, the dengue vaccine used in Thailand is chimeric yellow tetravalent dengue (CYD-TDV). This research presents optimal control which studies the vaccination only in individuals with a documented past dengue infection (seropositive), regardless of the serotypes of infection causing the initial infection by the disease. The analysis of dengue transmission model is used to establish the local asymptotically stabilities. The property of symmetry in the Lyapunov function an import role in achieving this global asymptotically stabilities. The optimal control systems are shown in numerical solutions and conclusions. The result shows that the control resulted in a significant reduction in the number of infected humans and infected vectors.
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