Transmission of dengue hemorrhagic fever in an age structured population

Pongsumpun, Puntani; Tang, I‐Ming

doi:10.1016/s0895-7177(03)00111-0

Cited by 49 publications

(31 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…With the notable exception of the agent-based model developed by Focks et al [11], most are compartmental models based on a set of differential equations [8]–[10], [12]–[13], [15]–[19], [21]–[23]. Only one model [11] includes a detailed representation of the vector population with their different stages of development (egg, larva, and pupa, adult).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Only one model [11] includes a detailed representation of the vector population with their different stages of development (egg, larva, and pupa, adult). Most but not all represent the four dengue serotypes [8], [9], [15], [18]–[23] and some assume that an individual can be infected no more than twice [16], [21]. Only a few models consider age [16], [22], [23], despite the observed increase in the age of dengue cases in Thailand for example [24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Transmission Dynamics of the Four Dengue Serotypes in Southern Vietnam and the Potential Impact of Vaccination

Coudeville

Garnett

2012

PLoS ONE

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BackgroundWith approximately 2.5 billion people at risk, dengue is a major international public health concern. Dengue vaccines currently in development should help reduce the burden associated with this disease but the most efficient way of using future dengue vaccines remains to be defined. Mathematical models of transmission can provide insight into the expected impact of different vaccination strategies at a population level and contribute to this definition.Methods and FindingsWe developed and analyzed an age-structured, host-vector and serotype-specific compartmental model, including seasonality. We first used this transmission model to identify the immunological interactions between serotypes that affect the risks and consequences of secondary infections (cross-protection, increased susceptibility, increased severity, and increased infectiousness) and reproduce the observed epidemiology of dengue. For populating this model, we used routine surveillance data from Southern Vietnam and the results of a prospective cohort study conducted in the same area. The model provided a good fit to the observed data for age, severity of cases, serotype distribution, and dynamics over time, using two scenarios of immunological interaction : short term cross-protection alone (6–17 months) or a combination of short term cross-protection with cross-enhancement (increased susceptibility, severity and infectiousness in the case of secondary infections). Finally, we explored the potential impact of vaccination for these two scenarios. Both highlighted that vaccination can substantially decrease dengue burden by reducing the magnitude and frequency of outbreaks.ConclusionOur model suggests that seasonality and short term cross-protection are key factors for explaining dengue dynamics in Southern Vietnam. Vaccination was predicted to significantly reduce the disease burden, even in the situation where immunological cross-enhancement affects the risks and consequences of secondary infections.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transmission Dynamics of the Four Dengue Serotypes in Southern Vietnam and the Potential Impact of Vaccination

Coudeville

Garnett

2012

PLoS ONE

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“…The model can only be used for direct transmission. Pongsumpun [8] modelled the influence of age structure in an SIS model for dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF). They showed that age structure reduces the periods of oscillations on the susceptible and infected human population and on the infected mosquito population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Motivated by the work of Auger [10] and Pongsumpun [8], we formulate an age structured model of malaria with susceptibility and infectivity depending on residence patch.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Formulation of a Vector SIS Malaria Model in a Patchy Environment with Two Age Classes

Wairimu¹,

Sallet²,

Ogana³

2014

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 . Using Vidyasagar theorem [1], the graph of the reduced system is shown to be strongly connected and the system is a monotone dynamical system. This means that circulation of malaria parasites among the species and among the patches is strongly connected, hence transmission is sustained. We show that for the n-dimensional age structured system the positive orthant is positively invariant for all positive values of the variables.

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“…see Reiner et al (2013) for a survey on models for vector-borne diseases. These models range from the classical ones-SI/SIS models (Susceptible-Infective); SIR (with a Removed class); or even SEIR (with an exposed class) to more complex multigroup or multipatch models (Lajmanovich and Yorke, 1976;Arino and van den Driessche, 2003;Guo et al, 2006Guo et al, , 2008Iggidr et al, 2012Iggidr et al, , 2016, and models with age-structure (Pongsumpun and Tang, 2003;Inaba, 1990;Kuniya, 2011) to name only models for directly transmitted diseases. When dealing with vector-borne diseases a classical model is the SIR-SI (SIR for the hosts, and SI for the vectors) also known as the Bailey-Dietz model (Bailey, 1975;Dietz, 1975) which, besides its simplicity, was only completely mathematically analysed 23 years later-cf.…”

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confidence: 99%

State estimators for some epidemiological systems

Iggidr

Souza

2018

J. Math. Biol.

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Abstract. We consider a class of epidemiological models that includes most wellknown dynamics for directly transmitted diseases, and some reduced models for indirectly transmitted diseases. We then propose a simple observer that can be applied to models in this class. The error analysis of this observer leads to a non-autonomous error equation, and a new bound for fundamental matrices is also presented. We analyse and implement this observer in two examples: the classical SIR model, and a reduced Bailey-Dietz model for vector-borne diseases. In both cases we obtain arbitrary exponential convergence of the observer. For the latter model, we also applied the observer to recover the number of susceptible using dengue infection data from a district in the city of Rio de Janeiro.

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Transmission of dengue hemorrhagic fever in an age structured population

Cited by 49 publications

References 10 publications

Transmission Dynamics of the Four Dengue Serotypes in Southern Vietnam and the Potential Impact of Vaccination

Transmission Dynamics of the Four Dengue Serotypes in Southern Vietnam and the Potential Impact of Vaccination

Formulation of a Vector SIS Malaria Model in a Patchy Environment with Two Age Classes

State estimators for some epidemiological systems

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