Currently, little is known about the viral kinetics of influenza A during infection within an individual. We utilize a series of mathematical models of increasing complexity, which incorporate target cell limitation and the innate interferon response, to examine influenza A virus kinetics in the upper respiratory tracts of experimentally infected adults. The models were fit to data from an experimental H1N1 influenza A/Hong Kong/123/77 infection and suggest that it is important to include the eclipse phase of the viral life cycle in viral dynamic models. Doing so, we estimate that after a delay of ϳ6 h, infected cells begin producing influenza virus and continue to do so for ϳ5 h. The average lifetime of infected cells is ϳ11 h, and the half-life of free infectious virus is ϳ3 h. We calculated the basic reproductive number, R 0 , which indicated that a single infected cell could produce ϳ22 new productive infections. This suggests that antiviral treatments have a large hurdle to overcome in moderating symptoms and limiting infectiousness and that treatment has to be initiated as early as possible. For about 50% of patients, the curve of viral titer versus time has two peaks. This bimodal behavior can be explained by incorporating the antiviral effects of interferon into the model. Our model also compared well to an additional data set on viral titer after experimental infection and treatment with the neuraminidase inhibitor zanamivir, which suggests that such models may prove useful in estimating the efficacies of different antiviral therapies for influenza A infection.

The US Public Health Emergency Medical Countermeasures Enterprise convened subject matter experts at the 2010 HHS Burkholderia Workshop to develop consensus recommendations for postexposure prophylaxis against and treatment for Burkholderia pseudomallei and B. mallei infections, which cause melioidosis and glanders, respectively. Drugs recommended by consensus of the participants are ceftazidime or meropenem for initial intensive therapy, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole or amoxicillin/clavulanic acid for eradication therapy. For postexposure prophylaxis, recommended drugs are trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole or co-amoxiclav. To improve the timely diagnosis of melioidosis and glanders, further development and wide distribution of rapid diagnostic assays were also recommended. Standardized animal models and B. pseudomallei strains are needed for further development of therapeutic options. Training for laboratory technicians and physicians would facilitate better diagnosis and treatment options.

Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

Melioidosis is a severe disease that can be difficult to diagnose because of its diverse clinical manifestations and a lack of adequate diagnostic capabilities for suspected cases. There is broad interest in improving detection and diagnosis of this disease not only in melioidosis-endemic regions but also outside these regions because melioidosis may be underreported and poses a potential bioterrorism challenge for public health authorities. Therefore, a workshop of academic, government, and private sector personnel from around the world was convened to discuss the current state of melioidosis diagnostics, diagnostic needs, and future directions.

Genetic and biological variation in the regulatory protein Rev of equine infectious anemia virus (EIAV) were examined throughout a clinically dynamic disease course of an experimentally infected pony. Following infection with the virulent EIAV(Wyo), the pony underwent a variable disease course, including an acute fever episode at 12 days postinfection (DPI), multiple recurrent fever episodes until 135 DPI, a prolonged subclinical period, and two late fever episodes. Viral RNA was isolated from the inoculum and sequential sera samples, and the rev exon 2/gp45 overlapping ORFs were amplified, cloned, and sequenced. Novel variants were found throughout infection, and genetic analyses indicated that both the Rev and gp45 ORFs were under selective pressure. The Rev variant predominant in the inoculum, R1, remained predominant during the early periods following infection (until 35 DPI); however, R1 was replaced by new predominant variants during the recurrent fever period (67-135 DPI). R1 reemerged as the predominant variant during the afebrile period, but a new predominant variant, R93, was associated with the late fever episodes. Rev variants predominant during recurrent febrile and late-febrile periods had significantly higher Rev-mediated nuclear export activity than the variants predominant during the acute and afebrile periods. Statistical correlation was found between Rev activity and different stages of clinical disease. Together, these results suggest that genetic and biological variation in rev may be a contributing factor in EIAV disease progression.