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ContextBeing born very preterm is associated with elevated risk for neonatal mortality. The aim of this review is to give an overview of prediction models for mortality in very premature infants, assess their quality, identify important predictor variables, and provide recommendations for development of future models.MethodsStudies were included which reported the predictive performance of a model for mortality in a very preterm or very low birth weight population, and classified as development, validation, or impact studies. For each development study, we recorded the population, variables, aim, predictive performance of the model, and the number of times each model had been validated. Reporting quality criteria and minimum methodological criteria were established and assessed for development studies.ResultsWe identified 41 development studies and 18 validation studies. In addition to gestational age and birth weight, eight variables frequently predicted survival: being of average size for gestational age, female gender, non-white ethnicity, absence of serious congenital malformations, use of antenatal steroids, higher 5-minute Apgar score, normal temperature on admission, and better respiratory status. Twelve studies met our methodological criteria, three of which have been externally validated. Low reporting scores were seen in reporting of performance measures, internal and external validation, and handling of missing data.ConclusionsMultivariate models can predict mortality better than birth weight or gestational age alone in very preterm infants. There are validated prediction models for classification and case-mix adjustment. Additional research is needed in validation and impact studies of existing models, and in prediction of mortality in the clinically important subgroup of infants where age and weight alone give only an equivocal prognosis.

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AIM This study investigated prediction of separate cognitive abilities at the age of 5 years by cognitive development at the ages of both 2 and 3 years, and the agreement between these measurements, in very preterm children.METHODS Preterm children (n=102; 44 males; 58 females) with a gestational age less than 30 weeks and ⁄ or birthweight less than 1000g were assessed at the ages of 2 and 3 years using the second edition of the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, the Child Behaviour Checklist, and a neurological examination, and at the age of 5 years using the third edition of the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence.RESULTS Cognitive development at ages 2 and 3 years explained 44% and 57% respectively of full-scale intelligence at the age of 5 years. Adding psychomotor, neurological, and behavioural outcomes to the regression model could not or only marginally improve the prediction; adding perinatal and sociodemographic characteristics to the regression model increased the explained variance to 57% and 64% respectively. These percentages were comparable for verbal intelligence. Processing speed quotient and especially performance intelligence were predicted less accurately.

In untreated infants, low FT4 values during the first 4 weeks after birth in infants born at <30 weeks' gestation are associated with worse neurodevelopmental outcome at 2 and 5 years. In T4-treated infants, high FT4 is not associated with worse outcome. Other factors than high FT4 concentrations must play a role in the worse outcome of the T4-treated group of 29 weeks' gestational age.

The effects of gestational age at delivery (GA), postnatal age (PNA) and post-menstrual age (PMA = PNA + GA, an indicator of autonomous developmental processes not affected by the moment of birth) on macronutrient composition of very preterm milk were studied. Total N, fat, lactose and carbohydrate concentrations, energy density and 24 h volume were determined in 282 24 h milk samples collected at weekly intervals (days 7-55 of lactation) from seventy-nine women delivering their babies between 25 and 29 weeks of gestation. GA related differences were found for carbohydrate concentration only: carbohydrate concentration was lower with increasing GA. PNA was related to a decrease in total N and an increase in lactose concentration. PMA was not related to milk composition. Our data indicate that PNA strongly influences the development of the composition of very preterm human milk, while GA affects carbohydrate content with a negligible effect on the nutritional value of the milk. We conclude that in accordance with current opinion in paediatrics, human milk is the best source of nutrients even for very preterm (Ͻ 30 weeks GA) infants.

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Improved developmental outcome and test behaviour were found at 36 compared to 24 months in a cohort of very preterm children. Long-term outcome studies and retesting of behaviourally difficult children are recommended.