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SUMMARYIn April 2005, an outbreak of Chikungunya fever occurred on the island of Re´union in the Indian Ocean. During winter 2005, six patients developed meningoencephalitis and acute hepatitis due to Chikungunya virus. Our objectives were to determine the incidence and mortality of atypical Chikungunya viral infections and to identify risk factors for severe disease. A hospital-based surveillance system was established to collect data on atypical Chikungunya cases. Case reports, medical records and laboratory results were reviewed and analysed. We defined an atypical case as one in which a patient with laboratory-confirmed Chikungunya virus infection developed symptoms other than fever and arthralgia. We defined a severe atypical case as one which required maintenance of at least one vital function. We recorded 610 atypical cases of Chikungunya fever : 222 were severe cases, 65 affected patients died. Five hundred and forty-six cases had underlying medical conditions (of which 226 suffered from cardiovascular, 147 from neurological and 150 from respiratory disorders). Clinical features that had never been associated with Chikungunya fever were recorded, such as bullous dermatosis, pneumonia, and diabetes mellitus. Hypertension, and underlying respiratory or cardiological conditions were independent risk factors for disease severity. The overall mortality rate was 10 . 6 % and it increased with age. This is the first time that severe cases and deaths due to Chikungunya fever have been documented. The information presented in this article may assist clinicians in identifying the disease, selecting the treatment strategy, and anticipating the course of illness.

In January 2005, an epidemic of chikungunya fever broke out in the Comoro Islands and lasted until May 2005. In April, cases were also reported in Mayotte and Mauritius. On Réunion Island, the first cases were reported at the end of April. Surveillance of this epidemic required an adaptive system, which at first was based on active and retrospective case detection around the cases reported, then relied on a sentinel network when the incidence increased. Emerging and severe forms of infection were investigated. Death certificates were monitored. By April 2006, the surveillance estimate was 244,000 cases of chikungunya virus infection, including 123 severe cases and 41 of maternoneonatal transmission, with an overall attack rate of 35%. Chikungunya infection was mentioned on 203 death certificates and significant mortality was observed. This epidemic highlighted the need for a mutual strategy of providing information on arboviral diseases and their prevention and control between countries in the southwestern Indian Ocean.

Asthma morbidity has been increasing for Background -A study was undertaken to reasons not yet well understood.1 Although assess the combined association between evidence for an increasing incidence of asthma urban air pollution and emergency ad-due to air pollution has not been provided, air missions for asthma during the years pollution could exacerbate existing asthma. to sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), and Methods -Daily counts were made of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) at levels compatible asthma admissions and visits to the emer-with urban life produced bronchial hypergency room in adults (age range 15-64 responsiveness and inflammation and reduced years) and children (<15 years). Covari-the dose of aeroallergen needed to produce ates were short term fluctuations in tem-a given bronchial response.3-9 Studies on air perature and humidity, viral epidemics, pollution in laboratory face two main limday of the week effects, and seasonal and itations: the non-representative selection of secular trends. Estimates from all the cities subjects and the simplification of human exwere obtained for the entire period and posures. separately by warm or cold seasons using Some recent population studies have related Poisson time-series regression models. daily levels of particles and ozone to the increase Combined associations were estimated of emergency room admissions for asthma, using meta-analysis techniques.though these findings do not extend to all Results -Daily admissions for asthma in the studies.2 10 Epidemiological studies on daily adults increased significantly with in-variations in asthma admissions and air polcreasing ambient levels of nitrogen dioxide lution levels assess the general population at (NO 2 ) (relative risk (RR) per 50 g/m 3 in-real world exposures with adequate internal crease 1.029, 95% CI 1.003 to 1.055) and validity.11 12 The APHEA Project 13 is an internon-significantly with particles measured national European prospective standardised as black smoke (RR 1.021, 95% CI 0.985 to study on the short term health effects of air 1.059). The association between asthma pollution in the general population. This paper admissions and ozone (O 3 ) was hetero-combines the individual city associations of air geneous among cities. In children, daily pollution with asthma admissions in Barcelona, admissions increased significantly with Helsinki, London and Paris, the four European sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) (RR 1.075, 95% CI cities in APHEA that collected data on asthma. 1.026 to 1.126) and non-significantly with This multi-city study allows an evaluation of a black smoke (RR 1.030, 95% CI 0.979 to wide variability in environmental exposures and 1.084) and NO 2 , though the latter only in enhances the external validity of findings. cold seasons (RR 1.080, 95% CI 1.025 to Individual results have been reported for 1.140). No association was observed for O 3 . Helsinki 14 and Barcelona.

BackgroundDuring the last decades, dengue viruses have spread throughout the Americas region, with an increase in the number of severe forms of dengue. The surveillance system in Guadeloupe (French West Indies) is currently operational for the detection of early outbreaks of dengue. The goal of the study was to improve this surveillance system by assessing a modelling tool to predict the occurrence of dengue epidemics few months ahead and thus to help an efficient dengue control.MethodsThe Box-Jenkins approach allowed us to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model of dengue incidence from 2000 to 2006 using clinical suspected cases. Then, this model was used for calculating dengue incidence for the year 2007 compared with observed data, using three different approaches: 1 year-ahead, 3 months-ahead and 1 month-ahead. Finally, we assessed the impact of meteorological variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity) on the prediction of dengue incidence and outbreaks, incorporating them in the model fitting the best.ResultsThe 3 months-ahead approach was the most appropriate for an effective and operational public health response, and the most accurate (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.85). Relative humidity at lag-7 weeks, minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks and average temperature at lag-11 weeks were variables the most positively correlated to dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, meanwhile rainfall was not. The predictive power of SARIMA models was enhanced by the inclusion of climatic variables as external regressors to forecast the year 2007. Temperature significantly affected the model for better dengue incidence forecasting (p-value = 0.03 for minimum temperature lag-5, p-value = 0.02 for average temperature lag-11) but not humidity. Minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks was the best climatic variable for predicting dengue outbreaks (RMSE = 0.72).ConclusionTemperature improves dengue outbreaks forecasts better than humidity and rainfall. SARIMA models using climatic data as independent variables could be easily incorporated into an early (3 months-ahead) and reliably monitoring system of dengue outbreaks. This approach which is practicable for a surveillance system has public health implications in helping the prediction of dengue epidemic and therefore the timely appropriate and efficient implementation of prevention activities.

International audienceChikungunya fever (CHIKV), a viral disease transmitted by mosquitoes, is currently affecting several areas in the Caribbean. The vector is found in the Americas from southern Florida to Brazil, and the Caribbean is a highly connected region in terms of population movements. There is therefore a significant risk for the epidemic to quickly expand to a wide area in the Americas. Here, we describe the spread of CHIKV in the first three areas to report cases and between areas in the region. Local transmission of CHIKV in the Caribbean is very effective, the mean number of cases generated by a human case ranging from two to four. There is a strong spatial signature in the regional epidemic, with the risk of transmission between areas estimated to be inversely proportional to the distance rather than driven by air transportation. So far, this simple distance-based model has successfully predicted observed patterns of spread. The spatial structure allows ranking areas according to their risk of invasion. This characterisation may help national and international agencies to optimise resource allocation for monitoring and control and encourage areas with elevated risks to act

Epidemiologic studies are crucial to the estimation of numbers of deaths attributable to air pollution. In this paper, the authors present a framework for distinguishing estimates of attributable cases based on time-series studies from those based on cohort studies, the latter being 5-10 times larger. The authors distinguish four categories of death associated with air pollution: A) air pollution increases both the risk of underlying diseases leading to frailty and the short term risk of death among the frail; B) air pollution increases the risk of chronic diseases leading to frailty but is unrelated to timing of death; C) air pollution is unrelated to risk of chronic diseases but short term exposure increases mortality among persons who are frail; and D) neither underlying chronic disease nor the event of death is related to air pollution exposure. Time-series approaches capture deaths from categories A and C, whereas cohort studies assess cases from categories A, B, and C. In addition, years of life lost can only be derived from cohort studies, where time to death is the outcome, while in time-series studies, death is a once-only event (no dimension in time). The authors conclude that time-series analyses underestimate cases of death attributable to air pollution and that assessment of the impact of air pollution on mortality should be based on cohort studies.

BackgroundDuring the last decade, French Guiana has been affected by major dengue fever outbreaks. Although this arbovirus has been a focus of many awareness campaigns, very little information is available about beliefs, attitudes and behaviors regarding vector-borne diseases among the population of French Guiana. During the first outbreak of the chikungunya virus, a quantitative survey was conducted among high school students to study experiences, practices and perceptions related to mosquito-borne diseases and to identify socio-demographic, cognitive and environmental factors that could be associated with the engagement in protective behaviors.Methodology/Principal FindingsA cross-sectional survey was administered in May 2014, with a total of 1462 students interviewed. Classrooms were randomly selected using a two-stage selection procedure with cluster samples. A multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) associated with a hierarchical cluster analysis and with an ordinal logistic regression was performed. Chikungunya was less understood and perceived as a more dreadful disease than dengue fever. The analysis identified three groups of individual protection levels against mosquito-borne diseases: “low” (30%), “moderate” (42%) and “high” (28%)”. Protective health behaviors were found to be performed more frequently among students who were female, had a parent with a higher educational status, lived in an individual house, and had a better understanding of the disease.Conclusions/SignificanceThis study allowed us to estimate the level of protective practices against vector-borne diseases among students after the emergence of a new arbovirus. These results revealed that the adoption of protective behaviors is a multi-factorial process that depends on both sociocultural and cognitive factors. These findings may help public health authorities to strengthen communication and outreach strategies, thereby increasing the adoption of protective health behaviors, particularly in high-risk populations.