Equations for the prediction of hurricane tracks have been developed by use of statistical methods. Data at sea level, 700 mb., and 500 mb. were selected as predictors. Forecasts are prepared in 12-hr. steps for periods up to 48 hr. The forecast equations have been tested on an operational basis during the 1964 and 1965 hurricane seasons. The accuracy of these forecasts compares favorably with that of other standard hurricane forecast techniques .
The NHC-64 statistical equations for predicting the movement of hurricanes have been in operational use for 4 yr. These equations have continued to perform well. Following the 1966 hurricane season, however, it was apparent that the equations could be improved. A new forecast technique, based on additional data and additional predictors, has been derived. Tests on independent data for 1966 and on an operational basis during 1967 indicate that the 1967 method is slightly superior t o NHC-64.
A multilevel primitivc-equation model has been designed for regional weather forecasting in the Tropics. Several experimental forecasts have been made on hurricane movement and development and on a nondeveloping tropical weather system. Forecasts of the movement of hurricane Celia were slightly slow and somewhat south of the actual track. Some intensification was forecast as Celia moved into the central Gulf of Mexico, but the model did not predict explosive dccpening. Grid spacings of 75 and 150 km were used.In the nondeveloping case, no deepening was forecast.Areal distribution of the predicted rainfall was good, but the amounts were too light. Forecasts have been made with hand-analyzed input and with interpolated data extracted from the National Meteorological Center's objective analyses.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.