The two-process model of sleep regulation makes accurate predictions of sleep timing and duration for a variety of experimental sleep deprivation and nap sleep scenarios. Upon extending its application to waking neurobehavioral performance, however, the model fails to predict the effects of chronic sleep restriction. Here we show that the two-process model belongs to a broader class of models formulated in terms of coupled non-homogeneous first-order ordinary differential equations, which have a dynamic repertoire capturing waking neurobehavioral functions across a wide range of wake/sleep schedules. We examine a specific case of this new model class, and demonstrate the existence of a bifurcation: for daily amounts of wakefulness less than a critical threshold, neurobehavioral performance is predicted to converge to an asymptotically stable state of equilibrium; whereas for daily wakefulness extended beyond the critical threshold, neurobehavioral performance is predicted to diverge from an unstable state of equilibrium. Comparison of model simulations to laboratory observations of lapses of attention on a psychomotor vigilance test (PVT), in experiments on the effects of chronic sleep restriction and acute total sleep deprivation, suggests that this bifurcation is an essential feature of performance impairment due to sleep loss. We present three new predictions that may be experimentally verified to validate the model. These predictions, if confirmed, challenge conventional notions about the effects of sleep and sleep loss on neurobehavioral performance. The new model class implicates a biological system analogous to two connected compartments containing interacting compounds with time-varying concentrations as being a key mechanism for the regulation of psychomotor vigilance as a function of sleep loss. We suggest that the adenosinergic neuromodulator/receptor system may provide the underlying neurobiology.

No abstract

Recent experimental observations and theoretical advances have indicated that the homeostatic equilibrium for sleep/wake regulation--and thereby sensitivity to neurobehavioral impairment from sleep loss--is modulated by prior sleep/wake history. This phenomenon was predicted by a biomathematical model developed to explain changes in neurobehavioral performance across days in laboratory studies of total sleep deprivation and sustained sleep restriction. The present paper focuses on the dynamics of neurobehavioral performance within days in this biomathematical model of fatigue. Without increasing the number of model parameters, the model was updated by incorporating time-dependence in the amplitude of the circadian modulation of performance. The updated model was calibrated using a large dataset from three laboratory experiments on psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) performance, under conditions of sleep loss and circadian misalignment; and validated using another large dataset from three different laboratory experiments. The time-dependence of circadian amplitude resulted in improved goodness-of-fit in night shift schedules, nap sleep scenarios, and recovery from prior sleep loss. The updated model predicts that the homeostatic equilibrium for sleep/wake regulation--and thus sensitivity to sleep loss--depends not only on the duration but also on the circadian timing of prior sleep. This novel theoretical insight has important implications for predicting operator alertness during work schedules involving circadian misalignment such as night shift work.

Fatigue is a risk factor for flight performance and safety in commercial aviation. In US commercial aviation, to help to curb fatigue, the maximum duration of flight duty periods is regulated based on the scheduled start time and the number of flight segments to be flown. There is scientific support for regulating maximum duty duration based on scheduled start time; fatigue is well established to be modulated by circadian rhythms. However, it has not been established scientifically whether the number of flight segments, per se, affects fatigue. To address this science gap, we conducted a randomized, counterbalanced, cross-over study with 24 active-duty regional airline pilots. Objective and subjective fatigue was compared between a 9-hour duty day with multiple take-offs and landings versus a duty day of equal duration with a single take-off and landing. To standardize experimental conditions and isolate the fatiguing effect of the number of segments flown, the entire duty schedules were carried out in a high-fidelity, moving-base, full-flight, regional jet flight simulator. Steps were taken to maintain operational realism, including simulated airplane inspections and acceptance checks, use of realistic dispatch releases and airport charts, real-world air traffic control interactions, etc. During each of the two duty days, 10 fatigue test bouts were administered, which included a 10-minute Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) assessment of objective fatigue and Samn-Perelli (SP) and Karolinska Sleepiness Scale (KSS) assessments of subjective sleepiness/fatigue. Results showed a greater build-up of objective and subjective fatigue in the multi-segment duty day than in the single-segment duty day. With duty start time and duration and other variables that could impact fatigue levels held constant, the greater build-up of fatigue in the multi-segment duty day was attributable specifically to the difference in the number of flight segments flown. Compared to findings in previously published laboratory studies of simulated night shifts and nighttime sleep deprivation, the magnitude of the fatiguing effect of the multiple take-offs and landings was modest. Ratings of flight performance were not significantly reduced for the simulated multi-segment duty day. The US duty and flight time regulations for commercial aviation shorten the maximum duty duration in multi-segment operations by up to 25% depending on the duty start time. The present results represent an important first step in understanding fatigue in multi-segment operations, and provide support for the number of flight segments as a relevant factor in regulating maximum duty duration. Nonetheless, based on our fatigue results, a more moderate reduction in maximum duty duration as a function of the number of flight segments might be considered. However, further research is needed to include investigation of flight safety, and to extend our findings to nighttime operations.