The natural frequency facilitation effect describes the finding that people are better able to solve descriptive Bayesian inference tasks when represented as joint frequencies obtained through natural sampling, known as natural frequencies, than as conditional probabilities. The present meta-analysis reviews 20 years of research seeking to address when, why, and for whom natural frequency formats are most effective. We review contributions from research associated with the 2 dominant theoretical perspectives, the ecological rationality framework and nested-sets theory, and test potential moderators of the effect. A systematic review of relevant literature yielded 35 articles representing 226 performance estimates. These estimates were statistically integrated using a bivariate mixed-effects model that yields summary estimates of average performances across the 2 formats and estimates of the effects of different study characteristics on performance. These study characteristics range from moderators representing individual characteristics (e.g., numeracy, expertise), to methodological differences (e.g., use of incentives, scoring criteria) and features of problem representation (e.g., short menu format, visual aid). Short menu formats (less computationally complex representations showing joint-events) and visual aids demonstrated some of the strongest moderation effects, improving performance for both conditional probability and natural frequency formats. A number of methodological factors (e.g., exposure to both problem formats) were also found to affect performance rates, emphasizing the importance of a systematic approach. We suggest how research on Bayesian reasoning can be strengthened by broadening the definition of successful Bayesian reasoning to incorporate choice and process and by applying different research methodologies. (PsycINFO Database Record

Meta-analyses are often used to synthesize the findings of studies examining the correlational relationship between two continuous variables. When only dichotomous measurements are available for one of the two variables, the biserial correlation coefficient can be used to estimate the product-moment correlation between the two underlying continuous variables. Unlike the point-biserial correlation coefficient, biserial correlation coefficients can therefore be integrated with product-moment correlation coefficients in the same meta-analysis. The present article describes the estimation of the biserial correlation coefficient for meta-analytic purposes and reports simulation results comparing different methods for estimating the coefficient's sampling variance. The findings indicate that commonly employed methods yield inconsistent estimates of the sampling variance across a broad range of research situations. In contrast, consistent estimates can be obtained using two methods that appear to be unknown in the meta-analytic literature. A variance-stabilizing transformation for the biserial correlation coefficient is described that allows for the construction of confidence intervals for individual coefficients with close to nominal coverage probabilities in most of the examined conditions. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

In 1955, Herbert Simon introduced the notion of satisficing: an agent satisfices by searching for an alternative that meets an aspiration level but does not optimize. We survey more than 60 years of advances in understanding satisficing in economics, psychology, and management, identifying two research traditions that address two classes of situations: under risk, satisficing is typically inferior to optimization strategies and modeled according to the neoclassical framework; under uncertainty, satisficing strategies are often derived empirically and can be highly effective. We integrate the two research traditions and show the conditions under which satisficing can be rational. (JEL D11, D80, D90)

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ObjectivesCochrane reviews are currently of limited use as many healthcare professionals and patients have no access to them. Most member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) choose not to pay for nationwide access to the reviews, possibly uncertain whether there is enough demand to warrant the costs of a national subscription. This study estimates the demand for review downloads and summary views under free access across all OECD countries.DesignThe study employs a retrospective design in analysing observational data of web traffic to Cochrane websites in 2014. Specifically, we model for each country downloads of Cochrane reviews and views of online summaries as a function of free access status and alternative sources of variation across countries. The model is then used to estimate demand if a country with restricted access were to purchase free access. We use these estimates to perform a cost-benefit analysis.ResultsFor one group of eight OECD countries, the additional downloads under free access are estimated to cost between US$4 and more than US$20 each. Three countries are expected to save money under free access, as existing institutional subscriptions would no longer be needed. For the largest group of 17 member states, free access is estimated to cost US$0.05–US$2 per additional review download. On average, the increase in review downloads does not appear to be associated with a decrease in the number of summary views. Instead, translations of plain-language summaries into national languages can serve as an additional strategy for dissemination.ConclusionsWe estimate that free access would cost less than US$2 per additional download for 20 of the 28 OECD countries without national subscriptions, including Canada, Germany and Israel. These countries may be encouraged by our findings to provide free access to their citizens.