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Sea level anomaly (SLA) data spanning 1992-2012 were analyzed to study the statistical properties of eddies in the Red Sea. An algorithm that identifies winding angles was employed to detect 4998 eddies propagating along 938 unique eddy tracks. Statistics suggest that eddies are generated across the entire Red Sea but that they are prevalent in certain regions. A high number of eddies is found in the central basin between 18 N and 24 N. More than 87% of the detected eddies have a radius ranging from 50 to 135 km. Both the intensity and relative vorticity scale of these eddies decrease as the eddy radii increase. The averaged eddy lifespan is approximately 6 weeks. AEs and cyclonic eddies (CEs) have different deformation features, and those with stronger intensities are less deformed and more circular. Analysis of long-lived eddies suggests that they are likely to appear in the central basin with AEs tending to move northward. In addition, their eddy kinetic energy (EKE) increases gradually throughout their lifespans. The annual cycles of CEs and AEs differ, although both exhibit significant seasonal cycles of intensity with the winter and summer peaks appearing in February and August, respectively. The seasonal cycle of EKE is negatively correlated with stratification but positively correlated with vertical shear of horizontal velocity and eddy growth rate, suggesting that the generation of baroclinic instability is responsible for the activities of eddies in the Red Sea.

Abstract.The budget of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Red Sea, including the sources, redistributions and sink, is examined using a high-resolution eddy-resolving ocean circulation model. A pronounced seasonally varying EKE is identified, with its maximum intensity occurring in winter, and the strongest EKE is captured mainly in the central and northern basins within the upper 200 m. Eddies acquire kinetic energy from conversion of eddy available potential energy (EPE), from transfer of mean kinetic energy (MKE), and from direct generation due to time-varying (turbulent) wind stress, the first of which contributes predominantly to the majority of the EKE. The EPEto-EKE conversion occurs almost in the entire basin, while the MKE-to-EKE transfer appears mainly along the shelf boundary of the basin (200 m isobath) where high horizontal shear interacts with topography. The EKE generated by the turbulent wind stress is relatively small and limited to the southern basin. All these processes are intensified during winter, when the rate of energy conversion is about four to five times larger than that in summer.The EKE is redistributed by the vertical and horizontal divergence of energy flux and the advection of the mean flow. As a main sink of EKE, dissipation processes is ubiquitously found in the basin. The seasonal variability of these energy conversion terms can explain the significant seasonality of eddy activities in the Red Sea.

Coral reefs rely on inter-habitat connectivity to maintain gene flow, biodiversity and ecosystem resilience. Coral reef communities of the Red Sea exhibit remarkable genetic homogeneity across most of the Arabian Peninsula coastline, with a genetic break towards the southern part of the basin. While previous studies have attributed these patterns to environmental heterogeneity, we hypothesize that they may also emerge as a result of dynamic circulation flow; yet, such linkages remain undemonstrated. Here, we integrate satellite-derived biophysical observations, particle dispersion model simulations, genetic population data and ship-borne in situ profiles to assess reef connectivity in the Red Sea. We simulated long-term (>20 yrs.) connectivity patterns driven by remotely-sensed sea surface height and evaluated results against estimates of genetic distance among populations of anemonefish, Amphiprion bicinctus, along the eastern Red Sea coastline. Predicted connectivity was remarkably consistent with genetic population data, demonstrating that circulation features (eddies, surface currents) formulate physical pathways for gene flow. The southern basin has lower physical connectivity than elsewhere, agreeing with known genetic structure of coral reef organisms. The central Red Sea provides key source regions, meriting conservation priority. Our analysis demonstrates a cost-effective tool to estimate biophysical connectivity remotely, supporting coastal management in data-limited regions.

We present our efforts to build an ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system for the Red Sea. The system consists of the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to simulate ocean circulation and of the Data Research Testbed (DART) for ensemble data assimilation. DART has been configured to integrate all members of an ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF) in parallel, based on which we adapted the ensemble operations in DART to use an invariant ensemble, i.e. an ensemble Optimal Interpolation (EnOI) algorithm. This approach requires only single forward model integration in the forecast step, and therefore saves substantial computational cost. To deal with the strong seasonal variability of the Red Sea, the EnOI ensemble is then seasonally selected from a climatology of long-term model outputs. Observations of remote sensing sea surface height (SSH) and sea surface temperature (SST) are assimilated every three days. Real time atmospheric fields from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as forcing in different assimilation experiments. We investigate the behaviors of the EAKF and (seasonal-) EnOI and compare their performances for assimilating and forecasting the circulation of the Red Sea. We further assess the sensitivity of the assimilation system to various filtering parameters (ensemble size, inflation) and atmospheric forcing.

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The spatial scale of larval dispersal is a key predictor of marine metapopulation dynamics and an important factor in the design of reserve networks. Over the past 15 yr, studies of larval dispersal in coral reef fishes have generated accumulating evidence of consistently high levels of self-recruitment and local retention at various spatial scales. These findings have, to a certain degree, created a paradigm shift toward the perception that large fractions of locally produced recruitment may be the rule rather than the exception. Here we examined the degree of localized settlement in an anemonefish, Amphiprion bicinctus, at a solitary coral reef in the central Red Sea by integrating estimates of self-recruitment obtained from genetic parentage analysis with predictions of local retention derived from a biophysical dispersal model parameterized with real-time physical forcing. Self-recruitment at the reef scale (c. 0.7 km 2 ) was virtually absent during two consecutive January spawning events (1.4 % in 2012 and 0 % in 2013). Predicted levels of local retention at the reef scale varied temporally, but were comparatively low for both simulations (7 % in 2012 and 0 % in 2013). At the same time, the spatial scale of simulated dispersal was restricted to approximately 20 km from the source. Model predictions of reef-scale larval retention were highly dependent on biological parameters, underlining the need for further empirical validations of larval traits over a range of species. Overall, our findings present an urgent caution when assuming the potential for self-replenishment in small marine reserves.

Adjoint sensitivity analysis is applied to a set of eddies in the Red Sea using a high‐resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model and its adjoint model. Previous studies have reported several eddy events in the Red Sea, namely, a dipole captured on 17 August 2001 in the southern Red Sea, a cyclonic eddy in November 2011 in the northern Red Sea, and an anticyclonic eddy in April 2010 in the central Red Sea. Sensitivity analysis is applied here to investigate the governing factors that control the intensity and evolution of these eddies. The eddies are first reproduced by running the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model forward and their sensitivities to external atmospheric forcing and previous model states are then computed using the adjoint model. In the experiments, (relative) surface vorticity (curl of horizontal velocity) is defined as the objective function. The contributions of forcings and model states are quantified and investigated. The sensitivities to external forcings are distinct in different eddy events. The dipole in the central Red Sea is dominantly sensitive to the cross‐basin eastward wind jet. The anticyclonic eddy in the central Red Sea is most sensitive to the along‐basin wind stress. The cyclonic eddy in the northern Red Sea is sensitive to the net heat flux and to surface elevation perturbations even from the remote southern Red Sea, which is attributed to the propagation of baroclinic Kelvin waves along the coast. Analysis of the sensitivity to model state variables suggests that these eddies are also modulated by the boundary currents and the temperature profile distributions.