The fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) has a strong impact on agricultural systems in Europe. However, its invasive potential, which was inherited from its native niche in North America, remains unknown. Here, we investigated the climatic niche and range shifts of the fall webworm in Europe and compared them with those in native North America, then assessed the worms’ invasive potential in Europe. Compared with the fall webworm in Europe, those in North America survived in more diverse climatic conditions, which was closely associated with their broader niche and larger potential ranges in Europe. If the fall webworm in Europe could exploit the native niche inherited from those in North America to adapt to climatic conditions in Europe, their potential ranges in Europe could be 5.5-fold those based on the niche as introduced in Europe. The potentially unfilled ranges of the fall webworm in Europe were mainly detected in vast regions of Europe, excluding Norway, Sweden, Finland, North Russia, Hungary, Croatia, Romania, and Ukraine, suggesting that, without strict control, these vast regions might be preferably invaded by the fall webworm in Europe in the future. Therefore, strict control against its invasion is needed. Given that small niche shifts in this invasive insect could result in large range shifts, the niche shifts represent a more sensitive indicator of invasion risk than range shifts.
BACKGROUNDAs an invasive pest from North America, grey squirrels (GSs; Sciurus carolinensis Gmelin) are displacing native squirrels in Europe. However, the climatic niche and range dynamics of GSs in Europe remain largely unknown. Through niche and range dynamic models, we investigated climatic niche and range shifts between introduced GSs in Europe and native GSs in North America.RESULTSGSs in North America can survive in more variable climatic conditions and have much wider climatic niche breadth than do GSs in Europe. Based on climate, the potential range of GSs in Europe included primarily Britain, Ireland, and Italy, whereas the potential range of GSs in North America included vast regions of western and southern Europe. If GSs in Europe could occupy the same climatic niche space and potential range as GSs in North America, they would occupy an area ca. 2.45 times the size of their current range. The unfilling ranges of GSs in Europe relative to those of GSs in North America were primarily in France, Italy, Spain, Croatia, and Portugal.CONCLUSIONOur observations implied that GSs in Europe have significant invasion potential, and that range projections based on their occurrence records in Europe may underestimate their invasion risk. Given that small niche shifts between GSs in Europe and in North America could lead to large range shifts, niche shifts could be a sensitive indicator in invasion risk assessment. The identified unfilling ranges of the GS in Europe should be prioritized in combating GS invasions in the future. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.
Interactions between the introduced gray squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) and the native red squirrel (S. vulgaris) play an important role in the ecological equilibrium of European forest ecosystems. However, the range dynamics of the grey squirrel and red squirrel under future climate change scenarios remain unknown. The present study examined the range dynamics of grey squirrels and red squirrels in Europe and their range overlap now and in the future based on climate change. Under the most optimistic climate change scenario (SSP126), expansion of the grey squirrel’s range was mainly predicted in Germany, France, Croatia, Serbia, and Bulgaria. Under the most pessimistic climate change scenario (SSP585), expansion of the grey squirrel’s range was predicted in vast and scattered regions. Additionally, France, Italy, and Germany were overlapping ranges for the grey squirrel and red squirrel in the future under the SSP126 scenario but not under the current conditions, suggesting that there will be new regions where grey squirrels may threaten red squirrels in the future under SSP126. The range overlaps under the SSP585 scenario but not under the current conditions were vast and scattered, suggesting that there will be new regions in the future where grey squirrel may displace red squirrels under SSP585. Despite considerable variation, we detected expansions in the grey squirrel and red squirrel ranges and an increase in overlapping ranges between grey squirrels and red squirrels in the future. Therefore, our prediction suggests increasing threats of grey squirrels toward red squirrels in Europe in the future under climate change, which may impact the ecological equilibrium of European forest ecosystems.
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