BackgroundPrevention of depression must address multiple risk factors. Estimating overall risk across a range of putative risk factors is fundamental to prevention of depression. However, we lack reliable and valid methods of risk estimation. This protocol paper introduces PREDICT, an international research study to address this risk estimation.Methods/designThis is a prospective study in which consecutive general practice attendees in six European countries are recruited and followed up after six and 12 months. Prevalence of depression is assessed at baseline and each follow-up point. Consecutive attendees between April 2003 and September 2004 who were aged 18 to 75 were asked to take part. The possibility of a depressive episode was assessed using the Depression Section of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. A selection of presumed risk factors was based on our previous work and a systematic review of the literature. It was necessary to evaluate the test-retest reliability of a number of risk factor questions that were developed specifically, or adapted, for the PREDICT study. In a separate reliability study conducted between January and November 2003, consecutive general practice attendees in the six participating European countries completed the risk factor items on two occasions, two weeks apart. The overall response rate at entry to the study was 69%. We exceeded our expected recruitment rate, achieving a total of 10,048 people in all. Reliability coefficients were generally good to excellent.DiscussionResponse rate to follow-up in all countries was uniformly high, which suggests that prediction will be based on almost a full cohort. The results of our reliability analysis are encouraging and suggest that data collected during the course of PREDICT will have a satisfactory level of stability. The development of a multi-factor risk score for depression will lay the foundation for future research on risk reduction in primary care. Our data will also provide the necessary evidence base on which to develop and evaluate interventions to reduce the prevalence of depression.
Current prevalence studies are useful indicators of service needs. People with comorbid psychiatric conditions have high rates of service use. The low rate of comorbidity in Chile merits further study.
The prevalence of psychiatric disorders in Chile is high among children and adolescents. This study highlights the increasing need to reevaluate mental health services provided to children and adolescents in Latin America.
This study compared the prevalence rates of various psychiatric disorders in persons with first onset of a potentially traumatic event (PTE) in childhood, persons with first onset of a PTE in adulthood, and those with no history of a PTE in a representative sample of Chileans. The Diagnostic of Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Revised Third Edition (DSM-III-R), posttraumatic stress disorder, and antisocial personality disorder modules from the Diagnostic Interview Schedule and modules for a range of DSM-III-R diagnoses from the Composite International Diagnostic Interview were administered to 2390 Chileans. The study found that exposure to a lifetime PTE was associated with a higher probability of psychiatric morbidity than no PTE exposure. A PTE with childhood onset relative to adult onset was related to lifetime panic disorder, independent of the number of lifetime and demographic differences between the 2 groups. Childhood interpersonal trauma compared with interpersonal trauma in adulthood was significantly associated with lifetime panic disorder, agoraphobia, and posttraumatic stress disorder. Our findings suggest that specific disorders are linked to interpersonal trauma and PTEs that occur in childhood rather than later in life.
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