Prediction of depression in European general practice attendees: the PREDICT study

Abstract

BackgroundPrevention of depression must address multiple risk factors. Estimating overall risk across a range of putative risk factors is fundamental to prevention of depression. However, we lack reliable and valid methods of risk estimation. This protocol paper introduces PREDICT, an international research study to address this risk estimation.Methods/designThis is a prospective study in which consecutive general practice attendees in six European countries are recruited and followed up after six and 12 months. Prevalence of depression is assessed at baseline and each follow-up point. Consecutive attendees between April 2003 and September 2004 who were aged 18 to 75 were asked to take part. The possibility of a depressive episode was assessed using the Depression Section of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. A selection of presumed risk factors was based on our previous work and a systematic review of the literature. It was necessary to evaluate the test-retest reliability of a number of risk factor questions that were developed specifically, or adapted, for the PREDICT study. In a separate reliability study conducted between January and November 2003, consecutive general practice attendees in the six participating European countries completed the risk factor items on two occasions, two weeks apart. The overall response rate at entry to the study was 69%. We exceeded our expected recruitment rate, achieving a total of 10,048 people in all. Reliability coefficients were generally good to excellent.DiscussionResponse rate to follow-up in all countries was uniformly high, which suggests that prediction will be based on almost a full cohort. The results of our reliability analysis are encouraging and suggest that data collected during the course of PREDICT will have a satisfactory level of stability. The development of a multi-factor risk score for depression will lay the foundation for future research on risk reduction in primary care. Our data will also provide the necessary evidence base on which to develop and evaluate interventions to reduce the prevalence of depression.

The risk for depression conferred by stressful life events is modified by variation at the serotonin transporter 5HTTLPR genotype: evidence from the Spanish PREDICT-Gene cohort

“…27 In brief, the risk factors for depression were either based on previously validated measures, concerned exposures (such as socio-demographic data) that are likely to be reported with a high degree of reliability, or (where new questions were developed, e.g., family history of psychological problems and living arrangements) were subjected to reliability testing at the outset of the study.…”

“…A detailed description of the PREDICT study design and its method has been reported elsewhere. 27 In brief, the PREDICT study is a 1-year prospective study assessing consecutive general practice attendees at 0 (time-1), 6 (time-2) and 12 months (time-3). Only cross-sectional (time-1) data are used in this analysis.…”

Prediction of Primary Care Depression Outcomes at Six Months: Validation of DOC-6 ©

“…[12][13][14][15][16][17][18] In Europe, the PREDICT study developed a multifactor risk score for predicting the development of depression among primary care patients who were asymptomatic for depression. 19,20 To our knowledge, however, no empirically derived tool is available to predict depression outcomes among patients in primary care who have recently been diagnosed with major depression.…”

Desarrollo y validación de un algoritmo para predecir riesgo de depresión en consultantes de atención primaria en Chile

“…Una descripción más precisa de ellos, y de los procesos de estandarización de los cuestionarios puede encontrarse en los artículos de PredictD-Europe 30,31 35 ; presencia de enfermedad física de larga evolución; consumo de alcohol en los 6 meses previos a la entrevista (AUDIT) 36 ; síntomas de ansiedad y pánico en los seis meses previos (PHQ) 37 . -Antecedentes clínicos y psicológicos: antecedentes de depresión en la vida (CIDI); existencia de problemas con el alcohol o antecedentes de tratamiento asociado a su consumo; uso de otras drogas durante la vida; experiencias infantiles de abuso físico y/o emocional; y/o de abuso sexual.…”

“…A pesar de que la literatura identifica factores de riesgo individuales, o áreas de riesgo, ninguno los había estudiado prospectivamente, usando muestras poblacionales representativas en un número determinado de países, hasta el estudio PREDICT [30][31][32] .…”