Extended Data Fig. 2 | Fuzzy sets for resource availability criteria. These are visual representations of the fuzzy sets for each indicator, including set shapes and thresholds, corresponding names and indicator ranges. Extended Data Fig. 3 | Fuzzy sets for economic viability criteria. These are visual representations of the fuzzy sets for each indicator, including set shapes and thresholds, corresponding names and indicator ranges. Article Extended Data Fig. 4 | Fuzzy sets for social equity and environmental sustainability criteria. These are visual representations of the fuzzy sets for each indicator, including set shapes and thresholds, corresponding names, and indicator ranges.

This is an open access article under the terms of the Creat ive Commo ns Attri bution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Abstract 1. Climate change is impacting marine ecosystems and their goods and services in diverse ways, which can directly hinder our ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), set out under the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.2. Through expert elicitation and a literature review, we find that most climate change effects have a wide variety of negative consequences across marine ecosystem services, though most studies have highlighted impacts from warming and consequences of marine species.3. Climate change is expected to negatively influence marine ecosystem services through global stressors-such as ocean warming and acidification-but also by amplifying local and regional stressors such as freshwater runoff and pollution load. Experts indicated that all SDGs would be overwhelmingly negatively affectedby these climate impacts on marine ecosystem services, with eliminating hunger being among the most directly negatively affected SDG. 5. Despite these challenges, the SDGs aiming to transform our consumption and production practices and develop clean energy systems are found to be least affected by marine climate impacts. These findings represent a strategic point of K E Y W O R D S climate change, expert elicitation, marine ecosystem services, ocean sustainability, Sustainable Development Goals

Climate change and warming ocean temperatures are a threat to coral reef ecosystems. Since the 1980s, there has been an increase in mass coral bleaching and associated coral mortality due to more frequent and severe thermal stress. Although most research has focused on the role of temperature, coral bleaching is a product of the interacting effects of temperature and other environmental variables such as solar radiation. High light exacerbates the effects of thermal stress on corals, whereas reductions in light can reduce sensitivity to thermal stress. Here, we use an updated global dataset of coral bleaching observations (n = 35,769) from 1985 to 2017 and satellite‐derived datasets of SST and clouds to examine for the first time at a global scale the influence of cloudiness on the likelihood of bleaching from thermal stress. We find that among coral reefs exposed to severe bleaching‐level heat stress (Degree Heating Weeks >8°Cˑweek), bleaching severity is inversely correlated with the interaction of heat stress and cloud fraction anomalies (p < 0.05), such that higher cloudiness implies reduced bleaching response. A Random Forest model analysis employing different set of environmental variables shows that a model employing Degree Heating Weeks and the 30‐day cloud fraction anomaly most accurately predicts bleaching severity (Accuracy = 0.834; Cohen's Kappa = 0.769). Based on these results and global warm‐season cloudiness patterns, we develop a ‘cloudy refugia’ index which identifies the central equatorial Pacific and French Polynesia as regions where cloudiness is most likely to protect corals from bleaching. Our findings suggest that incorporating cloudiness into prediction models can help delineate bleaching responses and identify reefs which may be more resilient to climate change.

In the emerald coral Porites panamensis, the rates of elongation and calcification of colonies are higher in males than in females, probably because of the higher energetic demands of the latter in order to cope with the development of the large planulae produced throughout the year. This differing energetic demand could also be reflected in the sexual dimorphism of the calyces; hence, to test this hypothesis, 11 morphological traits of the corallite were assessed from 63 colonies that were collected in the southern Gulf of California, Mexico. Three traits showed statistical differences between sexes, enabling accurate distinction of males from females. Our results confirm for the first time the existence of external sexual dimorphism in a reef-building coral, opening the possibility that sex-related morphological differences may occur generally in gonochoric scleractinians. These findings can be very useful for the correct classification and characterization of recent and fossil records, helping to improve the historical and evolutive understanding of reef-building corals facing threats under environmental changes.

Warm-water growth and survival of corals are constrained by a set of environmental conditions such as temperature, light, nutrient levels and salinity. Water temperatures of 1 to 2°C above the usual summer maximum can trigger a phenomenon known as coral bleaching, whereby disruption of the symbiosis between coral and dinoflagellate micro-algae, living within the coral tissue, reveals the white skeleton of coral. Anomalously cold water can also lead to coral bleaching but has been the subject of limited research. Although cold-water bleaching events are less common, they can produce similar impacts on coral reefs as warm-water events. In this study, we explored the effect of temperature and light on the likelihood of cold-water coral bleaching from 1998-2017 using available bleaching observations from the Eastern Tropical Pacific and the Florida Keys. Using satellite-derived sea surface temperature, photosynthetically available radiation and light attenuation data, cold temperature and light exposure metrics were developed and then tested against the bleaching observations using logistic regression. The results show that cold-water bleaching can be best predicted with an accumulated cold-temperature metric, i.e. ‘degree cooling weeks’, analogous to the heat stress metric ‘degree heating weeks’, with high accuracy (90%) and fewer Type I and Type II errors in comparison with other models. Although light, when also considered, improved prediction accuracy, we found that the most reliable framework for cold-water bleaching prediction may be based solely on cold-temperature exposure.