Climate impacts on the ocean are making the Sustainable Development Goals a moving target travelling away from us

Singh, Gerald G.; Hilmi, Nathalie; Bernhardt, Joey R.; Montemayor, Andres M. Cisneros; Cashion, Madeline S.; Ota, Yoshitaka; Acar, Sevil; Brown, Jason; Cottrell, Richard S.; Djoundourian, Salpie; González‐Espinosa, Pedro C.; Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Marshall, Nadine; Neumann, Barbara; Pichon, Nicolas; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Rocklöv, Joacim; Safa, Alain; Virto, Laura Recuero; Cheung, William W. L.

doi:10.1002/pan3.26

Cited by 41 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 58 publications

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“…We identified a strong relationship between areas of projected future declines in harvestable biomass and historically important fishing grounds, such as the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, the Scotian Shelf, and the Gulf of Maine, indicating long-term challenges for the responsible management authorities. Understanding climate-change impacts on marine ecosystems and associated commercial fisheries provides an important link in achieving the UN's SDGs, as our oceans and their goods and services directly affect the progress in meeting the goals for food security (SDG1), livelihoods (SDG2), and well-being for a growing human population (SDG3), and for sustaining life below water (SDG14) (Singh et al 2019).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-change impacts and fisheries management challenges in the North Atlantic Ocean

Bryndum-Buchholz

Boyce

Tittensor

et al. 2020

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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Climate-induced changes in the world’s oceans will have implications for fisheries productivity and management. Using a model ensemble from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), we analyzed future trajectories of climate-change impacts on marine animal biomass and associated environmental drivers across the North Atlantic Ocean and within the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) convention area and evaluated potential consequences for fisheries productivity and management. Our ensemble results showed that the magnitude of projected biomass changes increased over time and from a low (RCP2.6) to high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. Within individual NAFO divisions, however, projected biomass changes differed in the magnitude and sometimes direction of change between near (the 2030s) and far future (the 2090s) and contrasting emissions scenarios. By the 2090s, most NAFO divisions with historically (1990-1999) high fisheries landings were projected to experience biomass decreases of 5-40%, while Arctic and subarctic divisions with lower historical landings were projected to experience biomass increases between 20 and 70% under RCP8.5. Future trajectories of sea surface temperature and primary production corroborated that the far-future, high-emissions scenario poses the greatest risk to marine ecosystems and the greatest challenges to fisheries management. Our study summarizes future trends of marine animal biomass and underlying uncertainties related to model projections under contrasting climate-change scenarios. Understanding such climate-change impacts on marine ecosystems is imperative for ensuring that marine fisheries remain productive and sustainable in a changing ocean.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate-change impacts and fisheries management challenges in the North Atlantic Ocean

Bryndum-Buchholz

Boyce

Tittensor

et al. 2020

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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“…Levers and leverage points were identified using an iterative expert deliberation process (inspired by Burgman et al., 2011; Singh et al., 2019; Wiklund, 2005), tailored for this purpose and supplemented with review of published literature, peer review and four meetings (Figure 1). First, we relied on chosen experts to identify a preliminary set of levers and leverage points based on their expertise.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Levers and leverage points for pathways to sustainability

et al. 2020

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Humanity is on a deeply unsustainable trajectory. We are exceeding planetary boundaries and unlikely to meet many international sustainable development goals and global environmental targets. Until recently, there was no broadly accepted framework of interventions that could ignite the transformations needed to achieve these desired targets and goals. As a component of the IPBES Global Assessment, we conducted an iterative expert deliberation process with an extensive review of scenarios and pathways to sustainability, including the broader literature on indirect drivers, social change and sustainability transformation. We asked, what are the most important elements of pathways to sustainability? Applying a social–ecological systems lens, we identified eight priority points for intervention (leverage points) and five overarching strategic actions and priority interventions (levers), which appear to be key to societal transformation. The eight leverage points are: (1) Visions of a good life, (2) Total consumption and waste, (3) Latent values of responsibility, (4) Inequalities, (5) Justice and inclusion in conservation, (6) Externalities from trade and other telecouplings, (7) Responsible technology, innovation and investment, and (8) Education and knowledge generation and sharing. The five intertwined levers can be applied across the eight leverage points and more broadly. These include: (A) Incentives and capacity building, (B) Coordination across sectors and jurisdictions, (C) Pre‐emptive action, (D) Adaptive decision‐making and (E) Environmental law and implementation. The levers and leverage points are all non‐substitutable, and each enables others, likely leading to synergistic benefits. Transformative change towards sustainable pathways requires more than a simple scaling‐up of sustainability initiatives—it entails addressing these levers and leverage points to change the fabric of legal, political, economic and other social systems. These levers and leverage points build upon those approved within the Global Assessment's Summary for Policymakers, with the aim of enabling leaders in government, business, civil society and academia to spark transformative changes towards a more just and sustainable world. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

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“…Marine fisheries provide a vital source of food for over half the world's population and support the livelihoods of over 56 million people globally [1]. However, the ability for marine fisheries to provide these services is threatened by climate change [2], compromising the contribution of the oceans to sustainable development goals [3]. Ocean warming has already reduced the productivity of many fisheries around the globe, with some regions having experienced up to 35% declines in maximum sustainable yield [4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries

et al. 2020

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Although climate change is altering the productivity and distribution of marine fisheries, climate-adaptive fisheries management could mitigate many of the negative impacts on human society. We forecast global fisheries biomass, catch, and profits to 2100 under three climate scenarios (RCPs 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) and five levels of management reform to (1) determine the impact of climate change on national fisheries and (2) quantify the national-scale benefits of implementing climate-adaptive fisheries reforms. Management reforms accounting for shifting productivity and shifting distributions would yield higher catch and profits in the future relative to today for 60-65% of countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but for only 35% of countries under the most severe scenario. Furthermore, these management reforms would yield higher cumulative catch and profits than business-asusual management for nearly all countries under the two least severe climate scenarios but would yield lower cumulative catch for 40% of countries under the most severe scenario. Fortunately, perfect fisheries management is not necessary to achieve these benefits: transboundary cooperation with 5-year intervals between adaptive interventions would result in comparable outcomes. However, the ability for realistic management reforms to offset the negative impacts of climate change is bounded by changes in underlying biological productivity. Although realistic reforms could generate higher catch and profits for 23-50% of countries experiencing reductions in productivity, the remaining countries would need to develop, expand, and reform aquaculture and other food production sectors to offset losses in capture fisheries. Still, climate-adaptive management is more profitable than business-as-usual management in all countries and we provide guidance on implementing-and achieving the benefits of-climate-adaptive fisheries reform along a gradient of scientific, management, and enforcement capacities.

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Climate impacts on the ocean are making the Sustainable Development Goals a moving target travelling away from us

Cited by 41 publications

References 58 publications

Climate-change impacts and fisheries management challenges in the North Atlantic Ocean

Climate-change impacts and fisheries management challenges in the North Atlantic Ocean

Levers and leverage points for pathways to sustainability

Realistic fisheries management reforms could mitigate the impacts of climate change in most countries

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