Models to predict tree survival and mortality can help to understand vegetation dynamics and to predict effects of climate change on native forests. The objective of the present study was to use Artificial Neural Networks, based on the competition index and climatic and categorical variables, to predict tree survival and mortality in Semideciduous Seasonal Forests in the Atlantic Forest biome. Numerical and categorical trees variables, in permanent plots, were used. The Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID) and the distance-dependent competition index were the variables used. The overall efficiency of classification by ANNs was higher than 92% and 93% in the training and test, respectively. The accuracy for classification and number of surviving trees was above 99% in the test and in training for all ANNs. The classification accuracy of the number of dead trees was low. The mortality accuracy rate (10.96% for training and 13.76% for the test) was higher with the ANN 4, which considers the climatic variable and the competition index. The individual tree-level model integrates dendrometric and meteorological variables, representing a new step for modeling tree survival in the Atlantic Forest biome.
RESUMOA carência de estudos sobre o balanço de carbono e viabilidade econômica em sistemas agroflorestais (SAF) motivaram este estudo. Foram avaliados um sistema agrissilvipastoril (SASP) composto por eucalipto, feijão e capim braquiária e um sistema silvipastoril (SSP) composto por eucalipto e capim braquiária, ambos aos 3 anos de idade. Para estimar a biomassa do componente arbóreo foi utilizado o método indireto e para a gramínea, o direto. As emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GEE) foram baseadas no guia de Inventários Nacionais de GEE.
Carbon Balance and Economic Viability in Two Agroforestry Systems inViçosa, MG
ABSTRACTThe lack of studies on carbon balance and economic viability in Agroforestry Systems (AFS) motivated this study. We evaluated an agrosilvopastoral system (SASP), composed of Eucalypt, beans and Brachiaria-grass; and a silvopastoral system (SSP), composed of Eucalypt and Brachiariagrass, both 3 years old. The tree biomass was estimated using the indirect method and the direct method was used to quantify the grass biomass. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were based on the National Inventory tab of GHGs. The Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) were calculated. Both systems had a positive carbon balance. The NPV in the SASP was $388.77 and the IRR was 21%. The positive results were due to revenue generated by the sale of beans. The SSP NPV was -$ 1,298.00 and the IRR of -2%, considering the 3 years old trees cutting.
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