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Models to predict tree survival and mortality can help to understand vegetation dynamics and to predict effects of climate change on native forests. The objective of the present study was to use Artificial Neural Networks, based on the competition index and climatic and categorical variables, to predict tree survival and mortality in Semideciduous Seasonal Forests in the Atlantic Forest biome. Numerical and categorical trees variables, in permanent plots, were used. The Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID) and the distance-dependent competition index were the variables used. The overall efficiency of classification by ANNs was higher than 92% and 93% in the training and test, respectively. The accuracy for classification and number of surviving trees was above 99% in the test and in training for all ANNs. The classification accuracy of the number of dead trees was low. The mortality accuracy rate (10.96% for training and 13.76% for the test) was higher with the ANN 4, which considers the climatic variable and the competition index. The individual tree-level model integrates dendrometric and meteorological variables, representing a new step for modeling tree survival in the Atlantic Forest biome.

RESUMONa Mata Atlântica existem poucos estudos que relacionam os parâmetros fitossociológicos com a estocagem de carbono. Nesse sentido, objetivou-se com o estudo caracterizar a estrutura fitossociológica e relacionar com o índice Valor de Importância em Carbono (VIC) para uma Floresta Estacional Semidecidual, em Viçosa, MG. Calcularam-se a diversidade, os parâmetros fitossociológicos, além do VIC. As espécies Piptadenia gonoacantha, Mabea fistulifera, Anadenanthera peregrina se destacaram no índice de VIC. A ordem de importância das espécies foi alterada ao analisar o Índice de Valor de Importância, Valor de Importância em Volume e VIC. Com isso, dependendo dos objetivos de manejo, as espécies têm importância diferenciada. Por fim, entende-se que o índice Valor de Importância em Carbono, que une informações fitossociológicas com estocagem de carbono, é muito importante para a caracterização das florestas e verificação do seu papel na mitigação da concentração de gases de efeito estufa na atmosfera.Palavras-chaves: mata atlântica, estoque de carbono, florística e fitossociologia. Phytosociological Analysis and Importance Value in Terms of Carbon in a Seasonal Semideciduous Forest ABSTRACTFew studies in the Atlantic Forest have related phytosociology with carbon storage. The objective of this study was to characterize the vegetation structure and relate it with the importance value index (IVI) in terms of carbon for a semideciduous forest in Viçosa-MG. Besides the IVI, the diversity and phytosociology were investigated. The species Piptadenia gonoacantha, Mabea fistulifera, Anadenanthera peregrina stood out regarding the IVI index. The order of importance of the species changed when analyzing the Importance Value, the Importance Value on Volume and IVI. Thus, depending on the management objectives, species had different importance. Finally, it was evident that the IVI in terms of carbon, a measure that joins phytosociological and carbon storage information, is very important for the characterization of forests and for mitigating greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.

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