Analysis of changes in viral load after initiation of treatment with potent antiretroviral agents has provided substantial insight into the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). The concentration of HIV-1 in plasma drops by approximately 99% in the first two weeks of treatment owing to the rapid elimination of free virus with a half-life (t1/2) of < or =6 hours and loss of productively infected cells with a t1/2 of 1.6 days. Here we show that with combination therapy this initial decrease is followed by a slower second-phase decay of plasma viraemia. Detailed mathematical analysis shows that the loss of long-lived infected cells (t1/2 of 1-4 weeks) is a major contributor to the second phase, whereas the activation of latently infected lymphocytes (t1/2 of 0.5-2 weeks) is only a minor source. Based on these decay characteristics, we estimate that 2.3-3.1 years of a completely inhibitory treatment would be required to eliminate HIV-1 from these compartments. To eradicate HIV-1 completely, even longer treatment may be needed because of the possible existence of undetected viral compartments or sanctuary sites.

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We calculated the relative efficacy of treatment, defined as the rate of decline of virus levels in plasma during treatment relative to the rate of decline during highly potent combination therapy, in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) patients treated for 56 days with different doses of the protease inhibitor nelfinavir. Relative efficacies based on the rate of decline of HIV-1 RNA levels in plasma over the first 14 to 21 days correlated with drug dose and viral load reduction by day 56. Calculation of relative treatment efficacies over the first 2 to 3 weeks of treatment can allow rapid assessment of new antiretroviral agents and dosing regimens, reducing the need to keep subjects in clinical trials on monotherapy for prolonged periods of time. Relative efficacy may also serve as a measure of treatment efficacy in patients in initiating established therapies.