Treatment of infected patients with ABT-538, an inhibitor of the protease of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), causes plasma HIV-1 levels to decrease exponentially (mean half-life, 2.1 +/- 0.4 days) and CD4 lymphocyte counts to rise substantially. Minimum estimates of HIV-1 production and clearance and of CD4 lymphocyte turnover indicate that replication of HIV-1 in vivo is continuous and highly productive, driving the rapid turnover of CD4 lymphocytes.
A new mathematical model was used to analyze a detailed set of human immunodeficiency virus-type 1 (HIV-1) viral load data collected from five infected individuals after the administration of a potent inhibitor of HIV-1 protease. Productively infected cells were estimated to have, on average, a life-span of 2.2 days (half-life t 1/2 = 1.6 days), and plasma virions were estimated to have a mean life-span of 0.3 days (t 1/2 = 0.24 days). The estimated average total HIV-1 production was 10.3 x 10(9) virions per day, which is substantially greater than previous minimum estimates. The results also suggest that the minimum duration of the HIV-1 life cycle in vivo is 1.2 days on average, and that the average HIV-1 generation time--defined as the time from release of a virion until it infects another cell and causes the release of a new generation of viral particles--is 2.6 days. These findings on viral dynamics provide not only a kinetic picture of HIV-1 pathogenesis, but also theoretical principles to guide the development of treatment strategies.
To better understand the dynamics of hepatitis C virus and the antiviral effect of interferon-alpha-2b (IFN), viral decline in 23 patients during therapy was analyzed with a mathematical model. The analysis indicates that the major initial effect of IFN is to block virion production or release, with blocking efficacies of 81, 95, and 96% for daily doses of 5, 10, and 15 million international units, respectively. The estimated virion half-life (t1/2) was, on average, 2.7 hours, with pretreatment production and clearance of 10(12) virions per day. The estimated infected cell death rate exhibited large interpatient variation (corresponding t1/2 = 1.7 to 70 days), was inversely correlated with baseline viral load, and was positively correlated with alanine aminotransferase levels. Fast death rates were predictive of virus being undetectable by polymerase chain reaction at 3 months. These findings show that infection with hepatitis C virus is highly dynamic and that early monitoring of viral load can help guide therapy.
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