The magnitude and nature of the COVID-19 pandemic prevents public health policies from relying on coercive enforcement. Practicing social distancing, wearing masks and staying at home becomes voluntary and conditional on the behavior of others. We present the results of a large-scale survey experiment in nine countries with representative samples of the population. We find that both empirical expectations (what others do) and normative expectations (what others approve of) play a significant role in compliance, beyond the effect of any other individual or group characteristic. In our vignette experiment, respondents evaluate the likelihood of compliance with social distancing and staying at home of someone similar to them in a hypothetical scenario. When empirical and normative expectations of individuals are high, respondents’ evaluation of the vignette’s character’s compliance likelihood goes up by 55% (relative to the low expectations condition). Similar results are obtained when looking at self-reported compliance among those with high expectations. Our results are moderated by individuals’ trust in government and trust in science. Holding expectations high, the effect of trusting science is substantial and significant in our vignette experiment (22% increase in compliance likelihood), and even larger in self-reported compliance (76% and 127% increase before and after the lockdown). By contrast, trusting the government only generates modest effects. At the aggregate level, the country-level trust in science, and not in government, becomes a strong predictor of compliance.

Background Limited data is available regarding the frequency of COVID-19 in populations that are highly exposed to SARS-CoV-2. In this cross-section study we evaluated COVID-19 seroprevalence in military police forces of 10 major cities in Rio Grande do Sul, South of Brazil. Methods Sampling was randomly performed in clusters, in respect to the number of professionals at service per city and military unit. Research subjects were evaluated on July 23, 2020 (first wave peak in Brazil). Clinical information was obtained, and venous blood was taken for ELISA testing (IgA, and IgG antibodies). Sample size consisted of 1,592 military workers (33.6% of study population). They were mostly man (81.2%) and young (median 34 years-old). Most had been asymptomatic (75.3%) during pandemic, and 27.5% reported close contact with COVID-19 cases (after a median time of 21 days). Antibodies were detected in 3.3% of the participants, mostly IgA (2.7%), and IgG (1.7%). After 3 weeks, 66.7% of IgA and IgG results turned negative, in addition to 78.3% and 100% of borderline IgA and IgG results, respectively. Conclusion The seroprevalence of COVID-19 amongst military police was at least 3.4 higher than the findings of other studies performed in the general population, in the same cities and dates. Most detectable antibodies were of IgA class, which implies recent exposure. Asymptomatic people were more prone to have negative antibody titters in the second run.

The magnitude and nature of the COVID-19 pandemic prevents public health policies from relying on coercive enforcement. Practicing social distancing, wearing masks and staying at home are voluntary and conditional on the behavior of others. We present the results of a large-scale survey experiment in nine countries with representative samples of the population. We find that both empirical expectations (what others do) and normative expectations (what others approve of) play a significant role in compliance, beyond the effect of any other individual or group characteristic. In our survey experiment, when empirical and normative expectations of individuals are high, compliance goes up by 55% (relative to the low expectations condition). Similar results are obtained when we look at self-reported compliance among those with high expectations. Our results are driven by an asymmetric interaction with individuals’ trust in government and science. Holding both expectations high, the effect of trusting science is substantial and significant in our vignette experiment (22% increase in compliance), and even larger in self-reported compliance (76% and 127% increase before and after the lockdown). By contrast, trusting the government only generates modest effects. At the macro level, the country-level trust in science, and not in government, becomes a strong predictor of compliance.

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