Not all urban low-voltage grids will be able to integrate new loads such as charging infrastructure for electric mobility or electrical heat pumps into existing structures without further measures. Therefore, this article analyzes to what extent load management is more cost-effective than conventional grid expansion. Methodically, the different load types are first apportioned from country to grid-level on the basis of different parameters. Subsequently, both conventional grid planning as a reference variant and innovative grid planning with different variants of load management are carried out. As a result, it can be summarized that the future success of load management is strongly dependent on its costs and whether the necessary information and communication technology is already deployed in the grids. Regardless of the costs, there is also considerable potential for savings in conventional grid expansions.
With the increasing number of electric vehicles, the required charging infrastructure is increasing rapidly. The lack of historical data for the charging infrastructure compromises a challenge for distribution system operators to forecast the corresponding increase in the load demand. This challenge is characterised by two main uncertainties, namely, the charging power of the charging infrastructure and its location. Expectedly, the charging infrastructure is going to include varying charging powers and is going to be installed country-wide in different area types. Hence, this contribution sets to tackle these two uncertainties by developing demand factors for the charging infrastructure according to the area type. In order to develop the demand factors, a stochastic simulation tool for the charging profiles has been run for a simulation period of 5200 weeks (100 years) for six main charging powers and seven area types for up to 500 charging points. Thus, compromising a total of over 2.1 million simulated charging profiles. The resulting demand factor curves cover the charging powers between 3.7 kW and 350 kW with 1 kW steps for a total of 348 kW steps. Furthermore, they differ according to seven area types ranging from an urban metropolis to a rural village and are developed for up to 500 charging points. Consequently, the demand factor curves serve as a base to be used for the strategic grid planning of distribution power grids while taking the future development of the charging infrastructure into account.
In contrast to rural distribution grids, which are mostly “feed-in oriented” in terms of electrical power, urban distribution grids are “load oriented”, as the number of customer connections and density of loads in urban areas is significantly higher than in rural areas. Taking into account the progressive electrification of the transport and heating sector, it is necessary to assess the required grid optimization or expansion measures from a conventional, as well as an innovative point of view. This is necessary in order to be able to contain the enormous investment volumes needed for transforming the energy system and aligning the infrastructures to their future requirements in time. Therefore, this article first explains the methodological approach of allocating scenarios of the development of electric mobility and heat pumps to analyzed grids. The article continues with describing which power values need to be applied and which conventional and innovative planning measures are available for avoiding voltage band violations and equipment overloads within the framework of strategic grid planning. Subsequently, the results of grid planning studies are outlined and evaluated with an assessment model that evaluates capital as well as operational costs. On this basis, planning and operation guidelines for urban low-voltage grids are derived. The main result is that low-voltage grids can accommodate charging infrastructure for electric mobility, as well as heat pumps to a certain degree. In addition, it is concluded that conventional planning measures are not completely avoidable, but can be partially avoided or deferred through dynamic load management.
With the evolution of electromobility and heat pumps in urban areas, distribution system operators find themselves facing new challenges in reinforcing their grids. With this evolution, the power demand is developing rapidly and grid reinforcement is urgently needed. The electromobility and heat pump loads are introduced by giving the assumed development scenarios in Germany and their corresponding nominal power assumptions. Furthermore, a method for load modeling in grid planning is explained. Subsequently, several grid planning approaches are presented while dividing them into conventional and innovative planning strategies. Among the investigated innovative planning strategies are three variants of load management that regulate different load types. By analyzing several urban medium voltage grids, this contribution deduces a solid basis for distribution system operators in the form of planning guidelines. The implemented grid planning method leading to the planning guidelines is presented in detail along the contribution.
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