Illegal wildlife trade has reached alarming levels globally, extirpating populations of commercially valuable species. As a driver of biodiversity loss, quantifying illegal harvest is essential for conservation and sociopolitical affairs but notoriously difficult. Here we combine field-based carcass monitoring with fine-scale demographic data from an intensively studied wild African elephant population in Samburu, Kenya, to partition mortality into natural and illegal causes. We then expand our analytical framework to model illegal killing rates and population trends of elephants at regional and continental scales using carcass data collected by a Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species program. At the intensively monitored site, illegal killing increased markedly after 2008 and was correlated strongly with the local black market ivory price and increased seizures of ivory destined for China. More broadly, results from application to continental data indicated illegal killing levels were unsustainable for the species between 2010 and 2012, peaking to ∼8% in 2011 which extrapolates to ∼40,000 elephants illegally killed and a probable species reduction of ∼3% that year. Preliminary data from 2013 indicate overharvesting continued. In contrast to the rest of Africa, our analysis corroborates that Central African forest elephants experienced decline throughout the last decade. These results provide the most comprehensive assessment of illegal ivory harvest to date and confirm that current ivory consumption is not sustainable. Further, our approach provides a powerful basis to determine cryptic mortality and gain understanding of the demography of at-risk species.poaching | overharvest | population estimation | extinction | endangered species consumption
African elephants (Loxodonta africana) are imperiled by poaching and habitat loss. Despite global attention to the plight of elephants, their population sizes and trends are uncertain or unknown over much of Africa. To conserve this iconic species, conservationists need timely, accurate data on elephant populations. Here, we report the results of the Great Elephant Census (GEC), the first continent-wide, standardized survey of African savannah elephants. We also provide the first quantitative model of elephant population trends across Africa. We estimated a population of 352,271 savannah elephants on study sites in 18 countries, representing approximately 93% of all savannah elephants in those countries. Elephant populations in survey areas with historical data decreased by an estimated 144,000 from 2007 to 2014, and populations are currently shrinking by 8% per year continent-wide, primarily due to poaching. Though 84% of elephants occurred in protected areas, many protected areas had carcass ratios that indicated high levels of elephant mortality. Results of the GEC show the necessity of action to end the African elephants’ downward trajectory by preventing poaching and protecting habitat.
We investigated the ranging patterns of elephants in the Marsabit protected area, north eastern Kenya, to ascertain the range of bachelor and female family herds in different seasons, and to identify corridor and noncorridor areas. Data were acquired for five bachelor and four female family herds equipped with satellite‐linked geographical positioning system collars, and monitored from December 2005 to December 2007. Distinct dry (about 260 km2) and wet seasons (about 910 km2) ranges were observed, with connecting corridors (north‐eastern corridor: about 90 km long, about 2‐7 km wide; southern corridors: about 10‐20 km long, about 2‐3 km wide). The dry season range corresponded with Marsabit evergreen forest, while the wet season range matched with dry deciduous lowland shrubs. The ranging elephants moved at speed of about 0.2‐20 kmh−1. Bachelor herds moved faster than female family herds. Elephants moved fast during the intermediate and wet seasons than during the dry season. The speed of ranging elephants was over 1 kmh−1 in the corridor areas and about 0.2 to less than 1 kmh−1 in the non‐corridor areas. Expansion of settlements towards corridor areas needs to be controlled to avoid future blocking of connectivity between wet and dry season elephant ranges.
Poaching has escalated in recent years and is becoming the greatest immediate threat to elephants' survival. There is an urgent need to develop innovative and cost-effective methods for monitoring changes in elephant poaching levels remotely to complement the existing traditional field-based ground surveys. Since elephants are known to respond to anthropogenic risks by alterations in their speed of travel, we quantified this alteration as a ratio of night time speed to the day time speed (night-day speed ratio) and examined its relationship with poaching levels. Our hypothesis here is that poaching is a clear daytime risk, and thus an increase in night time movement rates over those seen during the day will support this hypothesis. Using elephant GPS tracking and mortality data collected in the Laikipia-Samburu ecosystem of northern Kenya between 2002 and 2012, we calculated the mean night-day speed ratio for collared elephants that utilised any of 13 contiguous land units, each under different ownership and management status, and related this ratio to the corresponding poaching levels before and during a poaching surge. Our study shows that the mean night-day speed ratio of both male and female elephants did not vary significantly by month, ruling out possible seasonal effect. However, both male and female elephants moved more at night than during the day where and when poaching levels were high. The relationship between poaching levels and night-day speed ratios was stronger for females than for males. We concluded that the variation in the night-day speed ratio of elephants might be used as an effective indicator for changes poaching levels on a near real-time basis. We recommend its adoption as a complimentary anti-poaching tool, where GPS tracking data is already available, because it would increase the geographical range for monitoring of poaching levels. The significant alteration in movement behaviour by elephants in response to poaching also has potential implications for their foraging strategy, reproduction and ultimate survival, all of which are not yet fully understood.
Above-ground thermonuclear weapons testing from 1952 through 1962 nearly doubled the concentration of radiocarbon ( 14 C) in the atmosphere. As a result, organic material formed during or after this period may be radiocarbon-dated using the abrupt rise and steady fall of the atmospheric 14 C concentration known as the bomb-curve. We test the accuracy of accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dating of 29 herbivore and plant tissues collected on known dates between 1905 and 2008 in East Africa. Herbivore samples include teeth, tusks, soft tissue, hair, and horn. Tissues formed after 1955 are dated to within 0.3–1.3 y of formation, depending on the tissue type, whereas tissues older than ca. 1955 have high age uncertainties (>17 y) due to the Suess effect. 14 C dating of tissues has applications to stable isotope (paleo)ecology and wildlife forensics. We use data from 41 additional samples to determine growth rates of tusks, molars, and hair, which improve interpretations of serial stable isotope data for (paleo)ecological studies. 14 C dating can also be used to calculate the time interval represented in periodic histological structures in dental tissues (i.e., perikymata), which in turn may be used as chronometers in fossil teeth. Bomb-curve 14 C dating of confiscated animal tissues (e.g., ivory statues) can be used to determine whether trade of the item is legal, because many Convention of International Trade of Endangered Species restrictions are based on the age of the tissue, and thus can serve as a powerful forensic tool to combat illegal trade in animal parts.
We investigated population genetic structure and regional differentiation among African savannah elephants in Kenya using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers. We observed mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) nucleotide diversity of 1.68% and microsatellite variation in terms of average number of alleles, expected and observed heterozygosities in the total study population of 10.20, 0.75, and 0.69, respectively. Hierarchical analysis of molecular variance of mtDNA variation revealed significant differentiation among the 3 geographical regions studied (F CT 5 0.264; P , 0.05) and a relatively lower differentiation among populations within regions (F SC 5 0.218; P , 0.0001). Microsatellite variation significantly differentiated among populations within regions (F SC 5 0.019; P , 0.0001) but not at the regional levels (F CT 5 0.000; P . 0.500). We attribute the high differentiation at the mitochondrial genome to the matrilineal social structure of elephant populations, female natal philopatry, and probably ancient vicariance. Lack of significant regional differentiation at the nuclear loci vis-a-vis strong differences at mtDNA loci between regions is likely the effect of subsequent homogenization through male-mediated gene flow. Our results depicting 3 broad regional mtDNA groups and the observed population genetic differentiation as well as connectivity patterns should be incorporated in the planning of future management activities such as translocations.
Efforts to curb elephant poaching have focused on reducing demand, confiscating ivory and boosting security patrols in elephant range. Where land is under multiple uses and ownership, determining the local poaching dynamics is important for identifying successful conservation models. Using 2,403 verified elephant, Loxodonta africana, mortality records collected from 2002 to 2012 and the results of aerial total counts of elephants conducted in 2002, 2008 and 2012 for the Laikipia-Samburu ecosystem of northern Kenya, we sought to determine the influence of land ownership and use on diurnal elephant distribution and on poaching levels. We show that the annual proportions of illegally killed (i.e., poached) elephants increased over the 11 years of the study, peaking at 70% of all recorded deaths in 2012. The type of land use was more strongly related to levels of poaching than was the type of ownership. Private ranches, comprising only 13% of land area, hosted almost half of the elephant population and had significantly lower levels of poaching than other land use types except for the officially designated national reserves (covering only 1.6% of elephant range in the ecosystem). Communal grazing lands hosted significantly fewer elephants than expected, but community areas set aside for wildlife demonstrated significantly higher numbers of elephants and lower illegal killing levels relative to non-designated community lands. While private lands had lower illegal killing levels than community conservancies, the success of the latter relative to other community-held lands shows the importance of this model of land use for conservation. This work highlights the relationship between illegal killing and various land ownership and use models, which can help focus anti-poaching activities.
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