A significant number of tropical cyclones move into the midlatitudes and transform into extratropical cyclones. This process is generally referred to as extratropical transition (ET). During ET a cyclone frequently produces intense rainfall and strong winds and has increased forward motion, so that such systems pose a serious threat to land and maritime activities. Changes in the structure of a system as it evolves from a tropical to an extratropical cyclone during ET necessitate changes in forecast strategies. In this paper a brief climatology of ET is given and the challenges associated with forecasting extratropical transition are described in terms of the forecast variables (track, intensity, surface winds, precipitation) and their impacts (flooding, bush fires, ocean response). The problems associated with the numerical prediction of ET are discussed. A comprehensive review of the current understanding of the processes involved in ET is presented. Classifications of extratropical transition are described and potential vorticity thinking is presented as an aid to understanding ET. Further sections discuss the interaction between a tropical cyclone and the midlatitude environment, the role of latent heat release, convection and the underlying surface in ET, the structural changes due to frontogenesis, the mechanisms responsible for precipitation, and the energy budget during ET. Finally, a summary of the future directions for research into ET is given.

The frequency of cold surges and vortex days is reduced during periods when the MJO is present. Composites of large-scale circulation and outgoing longwave radiation are used to show that often the MJO-related circulation patterns oppose the synoptic-scale cold surge and vortex circulations. Thus, a primary impact of the MJO is to inhibit weak 2 cold surge events, which then produces a secondary impact on the Borneo vortex via interactions between the cold surge winds and the vortex.3

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Timely and accurate forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs, i.e., hurricanes and typhoons) are of great importance for risk mitigation. Although in the past two decades there has been steady improvement in track prediction, improvement on intensity prediction is still highly challenging. Cooling of the upper ocean by TC‐induced mixing is an important process that impacts TC intensity. Based on detail in situ air‐deployed ocean and atmospheric measurement pairs collected during the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field campaign, we modify the widely used Sea Surface Temperature Potential Intensity (SST_PI) index by including information from the subsurface ocean temperature profile to form a new Ocean coupling Potential Intensity (OC_PI) index. Using OC_PI as a TC maximum intensity predictor and applied to a 14 year (1998–2011) western North Pacific TC archive, OC_PI reduces SST_PI‐based overestimation of archived maximum intensity by more than 50% and increases the correlation of maximum intensity estimation from r2 = 0.08 to 0.31. For slow‐moving TCs that cause the greatest cooling, r2 increases to 0.56 and the root‐mean square error in maximum intensity is 11 m s−1. As OC_PI can more realistically characterize the ocean contribution to TC intensity, it thus serves as an effective new index to improve estimation and prediction of TC maximum intensity.

Since the 1970s, the inverse relationship between the Indian monsoon rainfall and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has weakened considerably. The cause for this breakdown is shown to be most likely the strengthening and poleward shift of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. These changes have led to the recent development of a significant correlation between wintertime western European surface air temperatures and the ensuing monsoon rainfall. This western Europe winter signal extended eastward over most of northern Eurasia and remained evident in spring, such that the effect of the resulting meridional temperature contrast was able to disrupt the influence of ENSO on the monsoon.

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The development of extratropical cyclone structural characteristics that resulted from the extratropical transition of Typhoon (TY) David (1997) and TY Opal (1997) over the western North Pacific is examined. David moved poleward ahead of a midlatitude trough that was moving eastward as the dominant midlatitude circulation feature over the western North Pacific. During the transition, David coupled with the midlatitude trough, which led to the evolution of an intense cyclone that became the primary circulation over the North Pacific. Although Opal also moved poleward ahead of a midlatitude trough, the principal midlatitude feature over the western North Pacific was a preexisting stationary cyclone over the Kamchatka peninsula. During transition, Opal weakened and became a secondary cyclone to the preexisting primary North Pacific cyclone. The structural characteristics of the evolving extratropical cyclone with respect to each case are examined in the context of the interaction between a vortex and a baroclinic zone using vector-frontogenesis diagnostics for the Lagrangian rate of change of the magnitude and direction of the horizontal gradient of potential temperature. In this framework, total frontogenesis is divided into components that define the magnitude and rotation of the potential temperature gradient. The initial evolution of extratropical cyclone features for both cases was dominated by warm frontogenesis due to the large amount of warm advection on the east side of the decaying tropical cyclone and the deformation field defined by the poleward movement of the tropical cyclone. However, large differences between the components of rotational frontogenesis for David and Opal are observed that are related to the subsequent reintensification of David and weakening of Opal. The differences are attributed to the different midlatitude circulation characteristics into which each tropical cyclone moved. The pattern of rotational frontogenesis associated with TY David reinforced the dynamical support for the coupling of David with the midlatitude trough, which resulted in the development of an intense extratropical cyclone. During the transition of Opal, maximum rotational frontogenesis occurred over the region where Opal interacted with the preexisting midlatitude cyclone. This weakened the coupling between Opal and the midlatitude trough and prevented the development of a separate extratropical cyclone. One of the unresolved aspects of forecasting extratropical transition is to define when transition has occurred. Although the final extratropical cyclone characteristics may vary greatly from case to case, increased warm frontogenesis seems to be consistent during the initial change from tropical to extratropical characteristics. Therefore, evolution of a frontogenesis parameter is calculated for each case from before transition, through transition, and after transition. In both cases, the rate of increase in frontogenesis peaks at a time that may be defined as the transition time.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) change the ocean by mixing deeper water into the surface layers, by the direct air–sea exchange of moisture and heat from the sea surface, and by inducing currents, surface waves, and waves internal to the ocean. In turn, the changed ocean influences the intensity of the TC, primarily through the action of surface waves and of cooler surface temperatures that modify the air–sea fluxes. The Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) program made detailed measurements of three different TCs (i.e., typhoons) and their interaction with the ocean in the western Pacific. ITOP coordinated meteorological and oceanic observations from aircraft and satellites with deployments of autonomous oceanographic instruments from the aircraft and from ships. These platforms and instruments measured typhoon intensity and structure, the underlying ocean structure, and the long-term recovery of the ocean from the storms' effects with a particular emphasis on the cooling of the ocean beneath the storm and the resulting cold wake. Initial results show how different TCs create very different wakes, whose strength and properties depend most heavily on the nondimensional storm speed. The degree to which air–sea fluxes in the TC core were reduced by ocean cooling varied greatly. A warm layer formed over and capped the cold wakes within a few days, but a residual cold subsurface layer persisted for 10–30 days.