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Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are widely expected to exacerbate coastal hazards such as episodic coastal flooding. This study presents global-scale potential coastal overtopping estimates, which account for not only the effects of sea level rise and storm surge, but also for wave runup at exposed open coasts. Here we find that the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours have increased by almost 50% over the last two decades. A first-pass future assessment indicates that globally aggregated annual overtopping hours will accelerate faster than the global mean sea-level rise itself, with a clearly discernible increase occurring around mid-century regardless of climate scenario. Under RCP 8.5, the globally aggregated annual overtopping hours by the end of the 21st-century is projected to be up to 50 times larger compared to present-day. As sea level continues to rise, more regions around the world are projected to become exposed to coastal overtopping.

Abstract. Nearshore slope, defined as the cross-shore gradient of the subaqueous profile, is an important input parameter which affects hydrodynamic and morphological coastal processes. It is used in both local and large-scale coastal investigations. However, due to unavailability of data, most studies, especially those that focus on continental or global scales, have historically adopted a uniform nearshore slope. This simplifying assumption could however have far-reaching implications for predictions/projections thus obtained. Here, we present the first global dataset of nearshore slopes with a resolution of 1 km at almost 620 000 points along the global coastline. To this end, coastal profiles were constructed using global topo-bathymetric datasets. The results show that the nearshore slopes vary substantially around the world. An assessment of coastline recession driven by sea level rise (SLR) (for an arbitrary 0.5 m SLR) with a globally uniform coastal slope of 1 : 100, as carried out in previous studies, and with the spatially variable coastal slopes computed herein shows that, on average, the former approach would underestimate coastline recession by about 40 %, albeit with significant spatial variation. The final dataset has been made publicly available at https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:a8297dcd-c34e-4e6d-bf66-9fb8913d983d (Athanasiou, 2019).

Sea level rise (SLR) will cause shoreline retreat of sandy coasts in the absence of sand supply mechanisms. These coasts have high touristic and ecological value and provide protection of valuable infrastructures and buildings to storm impacts. So far, large-scale assessments of shoreline retreat use specific datasets or assumptions for the geophysical representation of the coastal system, without any quantification of the effect that these choices might have on the assessment. Here we quantify SLR driven potential shoreline retreat and consequent coastal land loss in Europe during the twenty-first century using different combinations of geophysical datasets for (a) the location and spatial extent of sandy beaches and (b) their nearshore slopes. Using data-based spatially-varying nearshore slope data, a European averaged SLR driven median shoreline retreat of 97 m (54 m) is projected under RCP 8.5 (4.5) by year 2100, relative to the baseline year 2010. This retreat would translate to 2,500 km2 (1,400 km2) of coastal land loss (in the absence of ambient shoreline changes). A variance-based global sensitivity analysis indicates that the uncertainty associated with the choice of geophysical datasets can contribute up to 45% (26%) of the variance in coastal land loss projections for Europe by 2050 (2100). This contribution can be as high as that associated with future mitigation scenarios and SLR projections.

Abstract. Nearshore slope, defined as the cross-shore gradient of the subaqueous profile, is an important input parameter which affects hydrodynamic and morphological coastal processes. It is used in both local and large-scale coastal investigations. However, due to unavailability of data, most studies, especially those that focus on continental or global scales, have historically adopted a uniform nearshore slope. This simplifying assumption could however have far reaching implications for predictions/projections thus obtained. Here, we present the first global dataset of nearshore slopes with a resolution of 1 km at almost 620,000 points along the global coastline. To this end, coastal profiles were constructed using global topo-bathymetric datasets. The results show that the nearshore slopes vary substantially around the world. An assessment of sea level rise (SLR) driven coastline recession (for an arbitrary 0.5 m SLR) with a globally uniform coastal slope of 1:100, as done in previous studies, and with the spatially variable coastal slopes computed herein shows that, on average, the former approach would under-estimate coastline recession by about 40 %, albeit with significant spatial variation. The final dataset has been made publicly available at https://doi.org/10.4121/uuid:a8297dcd-c34e-4e6d-bf66-9fb8913d983d.

Understanding long-term sandbar dynamics can be crucial for informed coastal zone management, but is often hampered by data availability. To increase the number of sandbar observations available from bathymetric surveys, this study proposes and evaluates a method to manually extract the sandbar location using freely available satellite imagery for the case study of Anmok beach in South Korea. Validation of the satellite extracted sandbar locations against 9 in-situ measurements shows good agreement with errors well within the pixel resolution of the satellite imagery (i.e. 30 m for Landsat missions). The applicability of the method is constrained to locations where (1) the cross-shore crescentic length scales are larger than the image resolution, (2) frequent wave breaking and clouds are absent and (3) the water clarity is sufficient to enable the manual extraction of the sandbar crest line. Using the additional sandbar observations from the satellite imagery significantly increases the temporal extent and resolution of the dataset for Anmok beach. This allows the study of sandbar characteristics, dynamics and impacts of human interventions to an extent that would not have been possible without the satellite imagery. Within the study period 1990-2017 it is found that the sandbar maintains a persistent crescentic pattern that is only altered during prolonged and very intense storm conditions. The cumulative alongshore migration of the sandbars is investigated and found to be in the order of hundreds of meters over the 27 years study period. Comparing the sandbar characteristics prior and after the construction of Gangneung port shows that both the amplitudes and wavelengths of the sandbar crescents near the port have decreased after its construction.

Dune erosion driven by extreme marine storms can damage local infrastructure or ecosystems and affect the long-term flood safety of the hinterland. These storms typically affect long stretches (∼100 km) of sandy coastlines with variable topo-bathymetries. The large spatial scale makes it computationally challenging for process-based morphological models to be used for predicting dune erosion in early warning systems or probabilistic assessments. To alleviate this, we take a first step to enable efficient estimation of dune erosion using the Dutch coast as a case study, due to the availability of a large topo-bathymetric dataset. Using clustering techniques, we reduce 1,430 elevation profiles in this dataset to a set of typological coastal profiles (TCPs), that can be employed to represent dune erosion dynamics along the whole coast. To do so, we use the topo-bathymetric profiles and historic offshore wave and water level conditions, along with simulations of dune erosion for a number of representative storms to characterize each profile. First, we identify the most important drivers of dune erosion variability at the Dutch coast, which are identified as the pre-storm beach geometry, nearshore slope, tidal level and profile orientation. Then using clustering methods, we produce various sets of TCPs, and we test how well they represent dune morphodynamics by cross-validation on the basis of a benchmark set of dune erosion simulations. We find good prediction skill (0.83) with 100 TCPs, representing a 93% input and associated computational costs reduction. These TCPs can be used in a probabilistic model forced with a range of offshore storm conditions, enabling national scale coastal risk assessments. Additionally, the presented techniques could be used in a global context, utilizing elevation data from diverse sandy coastlines to obtain a first order prediction of dune erosion around the world.

The world’s coastal areas are home to about 10% of the human population and support unique and dynamic ecosystems, offering € trillions worth of environmental and societal benefits. Climate change and anthropogenic pressures are however exacerbating devastating hazards such as episodic coastal flooding, the magnitudes of which remain highly uncertain to date. This study, for the first time, presents global scale coastal overtopping estimates, which account for not only the effects of sea level rise, storm surge and wave setup as traditionally done, but also that of wave runup and existing coastal protection measures. While the latter are widely recognized as important determinants of episodic coastal flooding, they have hitherto been ignored in assessments thereof. Our results show that the combination of tides and large wave runup events is the main contributor to episodic coastal overtopping. The Gulf of Mexico, northern Europe, Mediterranean region, east coast of Africa, south east Asia, and north western Australia emerge as hotspots of episodic coastal overtopping under the current climate. Future projections of overtopping with the the global mean sea level rise under “business-as-usual” scenario RCP 8.5 indicate that the globally integrated number of annual overtopping hours will increase at a rate faster than that of the global mean sea level rise itself. This study also shows that, under the RCP 8.5 sea level rise trajectory, the projected acceleration in coastal overtopping should be starting about now and will be clearly discernible by about 2050. Global overtopping has increased almost by 1.5 from 1993 by now and will reach values more than 50 times larger by the end of the 21st century. The global projections presented here are anticipated to lay a solid foundation for the development of effective climate adaptation measures at the identified hotspots, ideally through detailed local scale studies.