Advantages of a polarimetric prototype of the WSR-88D radar are confirmed during a demonstration project in Oklahoma.
An object-based verification methodology for the NSSL Experimental Warn-on-Forecast System for ensembles (NEWS-e) has been developed and applied to 32 cases between December 2015 and June 2017. NEWS-e forecast objects of composite reflectivity and 30-min updraft helicity swaths are matched to corresponding reflectivity and rotation track objects in Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor system data on space and time scales typical of a National Weather Service warning. Object matching allows contingency-table-based verification statistics to be used to establish baseline performance metrics for NEWS-e thunderstorm and mesocyclone forecasts. NEWS-e critical success index (CSI) scores of reflectivity (updraft helicity) forecasts decrease from approximately 0.7 (0.4) to 0.4 (0.2) over 3 h of forecast time. CSI scores decrease through the forecast period, indicating that errors do not saturate during the 3-h forecast. Lower verification scores for rotation track forecasts are primarily a result of a high-frequency bias. Comparison of different system configurations used in 2016 and 2017 shows an increase in skill for 2017 reflectivity forecasts, attributable mainly to improvements in the forecast initial conditions. A small decrease in skill in 2017 rotation track forecasts is likely a result of sample differences between 2016 and 2017. Although large case-to-case variation is present, evidence is found that NEWS-e forecast skill improves with increasing object size and intensity.
This study examined lightning activity relative to the rapidly evolving kinematics of a hail-producing storm on 15 August 2006. Data were provided by the National Weather Radar Testbed Phased-Array Radar, the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array, and the National Lightning Detection Network.This analysis is the first to compare the electrical characteristics of a hail-producing storm with the reflectivity and radial velocity structure at temporal resolutions of less than 1 min. Total flash rates increased to approximately 220 min 21 as the storm's updraft first intensified, leveled off during its first mature stage, and then decreased for 2-3 min despite the simultaneous development of another updraft surge. This reduction in flash rate occurred as wet hail formed in the new updraft and was likely related to the wet growth; wet growth is not conducive to hydrometeor charging and probably contributed to the formation of a ''lightning hole'' without a mesocyclone. Total flash rates subsequently increased to approximately 450 min 21 as storm volume and inferred graupel volume increased, and then decreased as the storm dissipated.The vertical charge structure in the storm initially formed a positive tripole (midlevel negative charge between upper and lower positive charges). The charge structure in the second updraft surge consisted of a negative charge above a deep midlevel positive charge, a reversal consistent with the effects of large liquid water contents on hydrometeor charge polarity in laboratory experiments.Prior to the second updraft surge, the storm produced two cloud-to-ground flashes, both lowering the usual negative charge to ground. Shortly before hail likely reached ground, the storm produced four cloud-toground flashes, all lowering the positive charge. Episodes of high singlet VHF sources were observed at approximately 13-15 km during the initial formation and later intensification of the storm's updraft.
A key advantage of the National Weather Radar Testbed Phased Array Radar (PAR) is the capability to adaptively scan storms at higher temporal resolution than is possible with the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D): 1 min or less versus 4.1 min, respectively. High temporal resolution volumetric radar data are a necessity for rapid identification and confirmation of weather phenomena that can develop within minutes. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the PAR's ability to collect rapid-scan volumetric data that provide more detailed depictions of quickly evolving storm structures than the WSR-88D. Scientific advantages of higher temporal resolution PAR data are examined for three convective storms that occurred during the spring and summer of 2006, including a reintensifying supercell, a microburst, and a hailstorm. The analysis of the reintensifying supercell (58-s updates) illustrates the capability to diagnose the detailed evolution of developing and/or intensifying areas of 1) low-altitude divergence and rotation and 2) rotation through the depth of the storm. The fuller sampling of the microburst's storm life cycle (34-s updates) depicts precursors to the strong surface outflow that are essentially indiscernible in the WSR-88D data. Furthermore, the 34-s scans provide a more precise sampling of peak outflow. The more frequent sampling of the hailstorm (26-s updates) illustrates the opportunity to analyze storm structures indicative of rapid intensification, the development of hail aloft, and the onset of the downdraft near the surface.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.