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on behalf of the European Carotid Surgery Trialists' Collaborative GroupBackground and Purpose-The risk of ischemic stroke distal to an atherothrombotic carotid stenosis increases with the degree of stenosis. The main mechanism of stroke is thought to be embolism from fissured or ruptured plaque, but there are few published data on the relationship between plaque morphology and severity of stenosis and their independent effects on the risk of ischemic stroke. We sought to determine the interrelation between plaque surface morphology, degree of carotid stenosis, and the risk of ipsilateral ischemic stroke. Methods-Severity of stenosis and plaque surface morphology were assessed on angiograms of the symptomatic carotid artery in 3007 patients in the European Carotid Surgery Trial and were related to baseline clinical characteristics, pathological characteristics of plaques examined at endarterectomy, and the risks of carotid territory ipsilateral ischemic stroke and other vascular events on follow-up. Results-The early risk of ipsilateral ischemic stroke on medical treatment was closely related to the degree of carotid stenosis. However, the initial degree of carotid stenosis was not predictive of strokes occurring Ͼ2 years after randomization. Angiographic plaque surface irregularity and plaque surface thrombus at endarterectomy increased in frequency as the degree of stenosis increased (both PϽ0.0001). However, the degree of stenosis was still predictive of the 2-year risk of stroke on medical treatment after correction for plaque surface irregularity. Angiographic plaque surface irregularity was an independent predictor of ipsilateral ischemic stroke on medical treatment at all degrees of stenosis (hazard ratioϭ1.80; 95% CI, 1.14 to 2.83; Pϭ0.01). This relationship was maintained when the analysis was confined to strokes occurring Ͼ2 years after randomization (hazard ratioϭ2.75; 95% CI, 1.30 to 5.80; Pϭ0.01). Neither the degree of stenosis nor plaque surface irregularity was predictive of the "background" stroke risk after endarterectomy or the risk of nonstroke vascular events. Conclusions-Angiographic plaque surface irregularity is associated with an increased risk of ipsilateral ischemic stroke on medical treatment at all degrees of stenosis. The increase in stroke risk with degree of stenosis is partly accounted for by the parallel increase in plaque surface irregularity and thrombus formation, but the degree of narrowing of the vessel lumen is still an independent predictor of ischemic stroke within 2 years of presentation. (Stroke. 2000;31:615-621.)

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ObjectivesWe aimed to determine age-specific rates of delirium and associated factors in acute medicine, and the impact of delirium on mortality and re-admission on long-term follow-up.DesignObservational study. Consecutive patients over two 8-week periods (2010, 2012) were screened for delirium on admission, using the confusion assessment method (CAM), and reviewed daily thereafter. Delirium diagnosis was made using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual Fourth Edition (DSM IV) criteria. For patients aged ≥65 years, potentially important covariables identified in previous studies were collected with follow-up for death and re-admission until January 2014.Participants503 consecutive patients (age median=72, range 16–99 years, 236 (48%) male).SettingAcute general medicine.ResultsDelirium occurred in 101/503 (20%) (71 on admission, 30 during admission, 17 both), with risk increasing from 3% (6/195) at <65 years to 14% (10/74) for 65–74 years and 36% (85/234) at ≥75 years (p<0.0001). Among 308 patients aged >65 years, after adjustment for age, delirium was associated with previous falls (OR=2.47, 95% CI 1.45 to 4.22, p=0.001), prior dementia (2.08, 1.10 to 3.93, p=0.024), dependency (2.58, 1.48 to 4.48, p=0.001), low cognitive score (5.00, 2.50 to 9.99, p<0.0001), dehydration (3.53, 1.91 to 6.53, p<0.0001), severe illness (1.98, 1.17 to 3.38, p=0.011), pressure sore risk (5.56, 2.60 to 11.88, p<0.0001) and infection (4.88, 2.85 to 8.36, p<0.0001). Patients with delirium were more likely to fall (OR=4.55, 1.47 to 14.05, p=0.008), be incontinent of urine (3.76, 2.15 to 6.58, p<0.0001) or faeces (3.49, 1.81–6.73, p=0.0002) and be catheterised (5.08, 2.44 to 10.54, p<0.0001); and delirium was associated with stay >7 days (2.82, 1.68 to 4.75, p<0.0001), death (4.56, 1.71 to 12.17, p=0.003) and an increase in dependency among survivors (2.56, 1.37 to 4.76, p=0.003) with excess mortality still evident at 2-year follow-up. Patients with delirium had fewer re-admissions within 30-days (OR=0.32, 95% CI 0.09 to 1.1, p=0.07) and in total (median, IQR total re-admissions=0, 0–1 vs 1, 0–2, p=0.01).ConclusionsDelirium affected a fifth of acute medical admissions and a third of those aged ≥75 years, and was associated with increased mortality, institutionalisation and dependency, but not with increased risk of re-admission on follow-up.

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