A. Riedy (d) T. Gosnell AbstractAuthentication is the process of establishing trust in monitoring systems and measurements to verify compliance with, for example, agreements dealing with the storage of nuclear weapons material. Authentication helps assure the monitoring party that accurate and reliable information is provided by any measurement system and that any irregularities are detected. The authentication of a system utilizes a set of approaches, including: functional testing using trusted calibration sources, evaluation of documentation, evaluation of software, evaluation of hardware, random selection of hardware and software, tamper-indicating devices, and operational procedures.Authentication of measurement systems should occur throughout their lifecycles, including system design, off-site authentication, on-site authentication, and authentication following repair. The most important of these is authentication during the initial design of systems. Hardware and software design criteria and procurement decisions can make future authentication relatively straightforward or conversely very difficult. Facility decisions can likewise ease the procedures for authentication since reliable and effective monitoring systems and tampering indicating devices can help provide the assurance needed in the integrity of such items as measurement systems, spare equipment, and reference sources.
The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 12 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data from 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOEIEIAIIEO 2001 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of "what if' scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.
This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict. 3This page intentionally left blank 4 Acknowledgements:
Robust and reliable quantitative proliferation assessment tools have the potential to contribute significantly to a strengthened nonproliferation regime and to the future deployment of nuclear fuel cycle technologies. Efforts to quantify proliferation resistance have thus far met with limited success due to the inherent subjectivity of the problem and interdependencies between attributes that lead to proliferation resistance. We suggest that these limitations flow substantially from weaknesses in the foundations of existing methodologies -the initial data inputs. In most existing methodologies, little consideration has been given to the utilization of varying types of inputs -particularly the mixing of subjective and objective data -or to identifying, understanding, and untangling relationships and dependencies between inputs. To address these concerns, a model set of inputs is suggested that could potentially be employed in multiple approaches. We present an input classification scheme and the initial results of testing for relationships between these inputs. We will discuss how classifying and testing the relationship between these inputs can help strengthen tools to assess the proliferation risk of nuclear fuel cycle processes, systems, and facilities.
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