Regional Dynamic Simulation Modeling and Analysis of Integrated Energy Futures

Abstract

The Global Energy Futures Model (GEFM) is a demand-based, gross domestic product (GDP)-driven, dynamic simulation tool that provides an integrated framework to model key aspects of energy, nuclear-materials storage and disposition, environmental effluents from fossil and non fossil energy and global nuclear-materials management. Based entirely on public source data, it links oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear and renewable energy dynamically to greenhouse-gas emissions and 12 other measures of environmental impact. It includes historical data from 1990 to 2000, is benchmarked to the DOEIEIAIIEO 2001 [5] Reference Case for 2000 to 2020, and extrapolates energy demand through the year 2050. The GEFM is globally integrated, and breaks out five regions of the world: United States of America (USA), the Peoples Republic of China (China), the former Soviet Union (FSU), the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations excluding the USA (other industrialized countries), and the rest of the world (ROW) (essentially the developing world). The GEFM allows the user to examine a very wide range of "what if' scenarios through 2050 and to view the potential effects across widely dispersed, but interrelated areas. The authors believe that this high-level learning tool will help to stimulate public policy debate on energy, environment, economic and national security issues.

Modeling the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

“…A step further in simulating the complexity of the fuel cycle was provided through the DANESS model [12], which expanded the different fuel cycle technologies and nuclear fuel types, in addition to allowing for decisions based on economic, experience, environmental, and governmental policy feedback. The two models have been used extensively in complicated fuel cycle deployment scenarios for both the international and the US nuclear enterprise [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18].…”