This study explores how researchers’ analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers’ expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team’s workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers’ results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
This paper discusses and empirically tests the relations between language proficiency and national identification with Germany among first generation immigrants in Germany. It presents three theoretical arguments: (1) language proficiency positively affects national identification; and contrastingly (2) national identification positively influences language proficiency; and (3) there is a reciprocal relationship between both constructs. To test these potentially contradictory claims empirically, we utilize data on first generation immigrants in Germany measured in four waves (1997, 1999, 2001 and 2003) from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) study. Language proficiency is operationalized with the variable proficiency in German language. Hypotheses are tested using autoregressive cross-lagged structural equation models. Findings demonstrate an effect of language proficiency on national identification among immigrants in Germany. However, data provide no support for an effect in the other direction.
Various family characteristics are acknowledged as important determinants of retirement preferences. Yet, the relevance of the third family generation – the grandchildren – has been largely overlooked. In this article we bring the association between grandparenthood and retirement preferences to the fore. We expect to find such a relationship for two main reasons: first, rising participation rates in the labor market, especially among mothers, increases the need for childcare which, in some countries, is only partially provided by the state. Second, for many people grandparenthood marks the transition to a new phase in the life-course, implying new role-identities. We thus expect grandparenthood to decrease anxieties associated with retirement and with the potential loss of one’s role-identity as a working person. We test the association between grandparenthood and retirement preferences using data from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). The findings confirm that grandparenthood increases an individual’s chances of looking forward to retiring early, thus supporting the claim that individuals’ lives are linked to the lives of their family members. Contrary to expectations, the association of grandparenthood with retirement preferences is particularly strong in countries that provide extensive childcare support.
In this article we test the effects of national attachments (patriotism and chauvinism) and perception of threat on citizens' willingness to concede citizenship rights to immigrants in France, Germany (West and East), the USA and Israel. Our findings show that despite marked differences in countries' migration policies and conceptions of nationhood, no significant differences were found in attitudes towards the allocation of citizenship rights to immigrants. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that contrary to our expectations, 1) the effects of both chauvinism and patriotism on willingness to grant citizenship rights to immigrants were rather low in Germany and Israel-the two ethno-national states, and strongest in France and the USA-which stand for republican and multicultural models of incorporation, respectively; 2) the effects of threat on exclusion of immigrants from citizenship rights was weaker in Israel (ethnic democracy) but stronger in the liberal democratic countries. In the conclusion, we suggest possible explanations for these rather intriguing and paradoxical findings.
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