Derivative contracts have a finite life limited by their maturity. The construction of continuous series, however, is crucial for academic and trading purposes. In this study, we analyze the relevance of the choice of the rollover date, defined as the point in time when we switch from the front contract series to the next one. We have used five different methodologies in order to construct five different return series of stock index futures contracts. The results show that, regardless of the criterion applied, there are not significant differences between the resultant series. Therefore, the least complex method can be used in order to reach the same conclusions.
This paper is the result of a crowdsourced effort to surface perspectives on the present and future direction of international finance. The authors are researchers in financial economics who attended the INFINITI 2017 conference in the University of Valencia in June 2017 and who participated in the crowdsourcing via the Overleaf platform. This paper highlights the actual state of scientific knowledge in a multitude of fields in finance and proposes different directions for future research.
The construction of a single European block in the context of financial markets has caused the different national stock exchanges of the euro area to converge towards one common trading calendar that allows to study whether the holiday effect is a panEuropean calendar anomaly or country-specific. By applying simulation methods, we provide evidence of the existence of statistically and economically abnormal positive pre-and post-holiday returns in the Eurozone which are not related to higher than average levels of volatility, but which can be explained by the preference of investors to avoid selling around European holidays.Keywords: pre-holiday effect; post-holiday effect; stock index futures; bootstrap; Monte Carlo JEL Classification: G12; G14 La convergencia hacia un único bloque Europeo en el contexto de los mercados financieros ha provocado que los principales mercados de acciones de la zona euro hayan adoptado un calendario de negociación común. Dicho calendario permite estudiar si el efecto festivo observado en las bolsas es una anomalía pan-Europea o es un efecto específico de cada país. Mediante la aplicación de diferentes técnicas de simulación, se ha constatado la existencia de rendimientos positivos pre-y postfestivos que son significativos tanto económica como estadísticamente. Además, se ha demostrado analíticamente que dichos rendimientos no están relacionados con niveles de volatilidad anormalmente altos, pero sí pueden explicarse por que los inversores prefieren evitar vender acciones alrededor de los días considerados como festivos dentro de la zona euro.
In equity offerings in which pre-emptive subscription rights are issued, there are two ways of acquiring the company's shares: either by buying them directly on the market, or by subscribing to the new shares using the subscription rights. This could lead to the existence of arbitrage opportunities. In addition, the announcement of these processes incorporates very relevant information to the market, which could generate abnormal returns for the shares. This paper analyses both hypotheses simultaneously on the same sample and concludes that there are indeed arbitrage opportunities and also abnormal returns can be detected. Furthermore, it is also concluded that these effects are especially significant in companies with low liquidity or for which short positions in the market are not available.
Whatever derivative contract has a finite life limited by their maturity. The construction of long series, however, is of interest for academic, hedging and investments purposes. In this study, we analyze the relevance of the choice of the rollover date on European Union Allowances (EUAs) and Certified Emissions Reduction (CERs) futures contracts. We have used five different methodologies to construct long series and the results show that, regardless of the criterion applied, there are not significant differences between the resultant return distribution series. Therefore, the least complex method, which is to roll on the last trading day, can be used in order to reach the same conclusions. Additional liquidity analysis confirms this method as the optimum method to link EUAs and CERs series, indicating that simplicity when linking EUAs and CERs series is not at odds with liquidity.
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