Abstract. This paper contributes to the current debate on the empirical validity of the decoupling hypothesis of the Islamic stock market from its mainstream counterparts by examining return and volatility spillovers across the global Islamic stock market, three main conventional national stock markets (the US, the UK and Japan) and a number of influential macroeconomic and financial variables over the period from July 1996 to June 2016. To that end, the VAR-based spillover index approach based on the generalized VAR framework developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) is applied. The empirical analysis shows strong interactions in return and volatility among the global Islamic stock market, the conventional stock markets and the set of major risk factors considered. This finding means that the Islamic equity universe does not constitute a viable alternative for investors who wish to hedge their investments against the vagaries of stock markets, but it is exposed to the same global factors and risks hitting the conventional financial system. Therefore, this evidence leads to the rejection of the decoupling hypothesis of the Islamic stock market from conventional stock markets, which has significant implications for faith-based investors and policy makers in terms of portfolio diversification, hedging strategies and contagion risk.Keywords: Islamic stock market, conventional stock markets, global risk factors, return and volatility spillovers, spillover index approach JEL Classification: C58, G01, G15
Understanding how contagion works among financial institutions is a top priority for regulators and policy makers who aim to foster financial stability and to prevent financial crises. Using bank credit default swap (CDS) data, we provide a framework for the evaluation of contagion among banks in different countries and regions during a period of prolonged financial distress. We measure contagion in terms of return spillovers, following a Generalized VAR (GVAR) approach. In addition, we propose an innovative framework to distinguish between two types of contagion: systematic (linked to global factors), and idiosyncratic (linked to bank specific factors). We find evidence of both types of contagion, although the spillover dynamics changed over time. Our measure of systematic contagion is always greater than the idiosyncratic component, thus highlighting the importance of common factors in the propagation of risk spillovers. This indicates that international linkages among banking markets are central to the transmission of shocks.
Interest rate risk is one of the major financial risks faced by banks due to the very nature of the banking business. The most common approach in the literature has been to estimate the impact of interest rate risk on banks using a simple linear regression model. However, the relationship between interest rate changes and bank stock returns does not need to be exclusively linear. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the interest rate exposure of the Spanish banking industry employing both parametric and non parametric estimation methods. Its main contribution is to use, for the first time in the context of banks' interest rate risk, a nonparametric regression technique that avoids the assumption of a specific functional form. Linear and Nonlinear ABSTRACTInterest rate risk is one of the major financial risks faced by banks due to the very nature of the banking business. The most common approach in the literature has been to estimate the impact of interest rate risk on banks using a simple linear regression model. However, the relationship between interest rate changes and bank stock returns does not need to be exclusively linear. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the interest rate exposure of the Spanish banking industry employing both parametric and non parametric estimation methods. Its main contribution is to use, for the first time in the context of banks' interest rate risk, a nonparametric regression technique that avoids the assumption of a specific functional form. One the one hand, it is found that the Spanish banking sector exhibits a remarkable degree of interest rate exposure, although the impact of interest rate changes on bank stock returns has significantly declined following the introduction of the euro. Further, a pattern of positive exposure emerges during the post-euro period. On the other hand, the results corresponding to the nonparametric model support the expansion of the conventional linear model in an attempt to gain a greater insight into the actual degree of exposure. J.E.L. Classification: G12, G21, C52Keywords: interest rate risk, banking firms, stocks, nonparametric regression techniques. Corresponding author. Departamento de Economía Financiera y Actuarial, Universidad de Valencia, Facultad de Economía, Avda. Tarongers, s/n, 46022 Valencia, Spain. Laura.Ballester@uv.es. Laura Ballester would like to express her gratitude for the funding received from the JCCM, proyecto PEII11-0031-6939. The authors would like to thank Alfonso Novales, Juan Nave, Ángeles Fernández, Paz Jordá, Miguel Ángel Martínez, Joaquín Maudos, and Eliseo Navarro for their valuable comments and suggestions. The authors are also grateful to the two anonymous referees for their comments that have contributed to improve this paper. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 6...
Recent financial downturns, characterized by the significant failures of firms, have revealed the need to control credit risk. Latest literature has shown that weak corporate governance structures are related to high levels of default risk, leading to financial instability. In this context, we aim to summarize the literature that focuses on the role that internal corporate governance plays in the credit risk of firms, specifically considering three corporate governance components: ownership structure, board structure and financial stakeholders' rights and relations. Additionally, we analyse whether the effectiveness of the internal mechanisms depends on particular key factors, especially the institutional setting and the type of mechanisms considered. Finally, new lines of research are identified for future research.
This paper is the result of a crowdsourced effort to surface perspectives on the present and future direction of international finance. The authors are researchers in financial economics who attended the INFINITI 2017 conference in the University of Valencia in June 2017 and who participated in the crowdsourcing via the Overleaf platform. This paper highlights the actual state of scientific knowledge in a multitude of fields in finance and proposes different directions for future research.
This study complements the current literature, providing a thorough investigation of the lead–lag connection between stock indices and sovereign credit default swap (CDS) returns for 14 European countries and the US over the period 2004–2016. We use a rolling VAR framework that enables us to analyse the connection process over time covering both crisis and non-crisis periods. In addition, we analyse the relationship between stock market volatility and CDS returns. We find that the connection between the credit and equity markets does exist and that it is time variable and seems to be related to financial crises. We also observe that stock market returns anticipate sovereign CDS returns, and sovereign CDSs anticipate the conditional volatility of equity returns, closing a connectedness circle between markets. Contribution percentages in terms of returns are more intense in the US than in Europe and the opposite result is found with respect to volatilities. Within Europe, a greater impact in Eurozone countries compared to non-Eurozone countries is observed. Finally, an additional analysis is also carried out for the financial sector, obtaining results largely consistent with those found using sovereign data.
From the 2007 subprime crisis to the recent Eurozone debt crisis, the banking industry has experienced terrible financial instability with increasing volatility levels of bank default probability. Using European CDS spreads data from January 2006 to March 2013, this paper sheds light on the impact of three recent significant events of credit risk volatility transmission between, firstly, Eurozone and non-Eurozone banks, and then between distressed peripheral and core countries inside the Eurozone. We employ an asymmetric multivariate BEKK model to measure cross-market volatility spillovers. We find that both recent crises are distinct episodes. The global financial crisis that originated outside Europe is characterized by unidirectional volatility spillovers in credit risk from inside to outside the Eurozone. By contrast, the Eurozone debt crisis is revealed to be local in nature with the euro as the key element, suggesting a financial market fragmentation within the Eurozone between distressed peripheral and non-distressed core Eurozone countries, whereas retaining the local currency has acted as a firewall.
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