Background: The reproduction number (R 0 ) is vital in epidemiology to estimate the number of infected people and trace close contacts. R 0 values vary depending on social activity and type of gathering events that induce infection transmissibility and its pathophysiology dependence. Objectives: In this study, we estimated the probable outbreak size of COVID-19 clusters mathematically using a simple model that can predict the number of COVID-19 cases as a function of time. Methods: We proposed a mathematical model to estimate the R 0 of COVID-19 in an outbreak occurring in both local and international clusters in light of published data. Different types of clusters (religious, wedding, and industrial activity) were selected based on reported events in different countries between February and April 2020. Results: The highest R 0 values were found in wedding party events (5), followed by religious gathering events (2.5), while the lowest value was found in the industrial cluster (2). In return, this will enable us to assess the trend of coronavirus spread by comparing the model results and observed patterns. Conclusions: This study provides predictive COVID-19 transmission patterns in different cluster types based on different R 0 values. This model offers a contact-tracing task with the predicted number of cases, to decision-makers; this would help them in epidemiological investigations by knowing when to stop.
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the results of implementing the Kaizen approach in a caravan repairing project near the Jordanian–Syrian border in the Zaatari camp. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on the exploratory qualitative research approach. The data were collected through interviews and on-site observation with employees who were involved with the caravan maintenance project and have adequate knowledge and information about this project. In this process, a fishbone diagram, a quality control tool, is used to recognize and explain a causal-effect relationship under the selected Kaizen theme. Findings The findings suggest that the Kaizen approach was economical in terms of both money and time. Also, waste elimination can be achieved through a variety of tools and easily combined with the Kaizen approach. Implementing the Kaizen approach is an effective and reliable system that allows for the tackling of all types of inefficiencies in the caravan repairing project. Research limitations/implications The findings of this study will help policy makers and managers put together suitable and effective policies that will assist those firms in overcoming the demands of customers and competitors to deliver high quality, inexpensive products in less time through the application of the Kaizen approach. This, in turn, will lead to improved quality, efficiency and productivity in the most cost-effective way. However, these results should not be generalized since they are only confined to the context of caravan repairing project. Originality/value Very little research has been done that takes into account the contexts of developing countries. Additionally, most literature presents the use of Kaizen applications only in the manufacturing or production sectors. This study is the first to implement Kaizen as a continuous improvement technique in a caravan repairing project – a job shop industry different from the repetitive batch work environment that is usually associated with implementation of Kaizen. The current research should be of great interest to researchers, managers and professionals who wish to apply Kaizen approach as it is sustainable over time in similar projects.
The multi-reservoir systems optimization problem requires defining a set of rules to recognize the water amount stored and released in accordance with the system constraints. Traditional methods are not suitable for complex multi-reservoir systems with high dimensionality. Recently, metaheuristic-based algorithms such as evolutionary algorithms and local search-based algorithms are successfully used to solve the multi-reservoir systems. β-hill climbing is a recent metaheuristic local search-based algorithm. In this paper, the multi-reservoir systems optimization problem is tackled using β-hill climbing. In order to validate the proposed method, four-reservoir systems used in the literature to evaluate the algorithm are utilized. A comparative evaluation is conducted to evaluate the proposed method against other methods found in the literature. The obtained results show the competitiveness of the proposed algorithm.
Medical devices used in healthcare organizations are costly, and the process of selecting these devices requires considering multiple criteria such as effectiveness and ease of use. Careful selection of these devices is daunting since it entails the evaluation of various measures. This research investigates the selection process of the same type of medical devices, especially when alternatives are available, and the organization needs to make a good selection. A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) framework based on the integration of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and ELimination Et Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE) method is developed. The framework model includes 10 criteria, which are selected based on real-life inputs from professional physicians. Seven Ultrasound machines (referred to as alternatives) are evaluated using the developed
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