Estimation of the probable outbreak size of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in social gathering events and industrial activities

Saidan, Motasem N.; Shbool, Mohammad A.; Arabeyyat, Omar Suleiman; Al‐Shihabi, Sameh; Abdallat, Yousef; Barghash, Mahmoud A.; Saidan, Hakam

doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2020.06.105

Cited by 40 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…23 Interventions targeting increased physical distancing and limiting contact were introduced in some countries, including the closure of schools, places of worship, malls, and offices. 22 Our model suggests that specifically exempting religious gatherings from bans may increase the laCFR, consistent with the combination of findings that (1) religious gatherings across the globe were linked to COVID-19 superspreader events 24 and (2) older Americans (who are more likely to attend religious services than younger Americans 25 ) are at increased risk of death due to COVID-19.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Risk factors for increased COVID-19 case-fatality in the United States: A county-level analysis during the first wave

Millar

Dao

Stefopulos

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic is causing significant morbidity and mortality across the US. In this ecological study, we identified county-level variables associated with the COVID-19 case-fatality rate (CFR) using publicly available datasets and a negative binomial generalized linear model. Variables associated with decreased CFR included a greater number of hospitals per 10,000 people, banning religious gatherings, a higher percentage of people living in mobile homes, and a higher percentage of uninsured people. Variables associated with increased CFR included a higher percentage of the population over age 65, a higher percentage of Black or African Americans, a higher asthma prevalence, and a greater number of hospitals in a county. By identifying factors that are associated with COVID-19 CFR in US counties, we hope to help officials target public health interventions and healthcare resources to locations that are at increased risk of COVID-19 fatalities.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 78%

Risk factors for increased COVID-19 case-fatality in the United States: A county-level analysis during the first wave

Millar

Dao

Stefopulos

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…The literature reported that R 0 ranges between 2.3 and 6.5 [ 28 , 35 , 36 , 37 ] and a re-analysis of Chinese data provided an updated estimate of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9) [ 37 ]. Other published studies reported that, for social gathering events such as wedding parties in Jordan, the R 0 value was five [ 38 ].…”

Section: Figurementioning

confidence: 99%

The Effect of Strict State Measures on the Epidemiologic Curve of COVID-19 Infection in the Context of a Developing Country: A Simulation from Jordan

Kheirallah

Alsinglawi

Alzoubi

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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COVID-19 has posed an unprecedented global public health threat and caused a significant number of severe cases that necessitated long hospitalization and overwhelmed health services in the most affected countries. In response, governments initiated a series of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that led to severe economic and social impacts. The effect of these intervention measures on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic are not well investigated within developing country settings. This study simulated the trajectories of the COVID-19 pandemic curve in Jordan between February and May and assessed the effect of Jordan’s strict NPI measures on the spread of COVID-19. A modified susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered (SEIR) epidemic model was utilized. The compartments in the proposed model categorized the Jordanian population into six deterministic compartments: suspected, exposed, infectious pre-symptomatic, infectious with mild symptoms, infectious with moderate to severe symptoms, and recovered. The GLEAMviz client simulator was used to run the simulation model. Epidemic curves were plotted for estimated COVID-19 cases in the simulation model, and compared against the reported cases. The simulation model estimated the highest number of total daily new COVID-19 cases, in the pre-symptomatic compartmental state, to be 65 cases, with an epidemic curve growing to its peak in 49 days and terminating in a duration of 83 days, and a total simulated cumulative case count of 1048 cases. The curve representing the number of actual reported cases in Jordan showed a good pattern compatibility to that in the mild and moderate to severe compartmental states. The reproduction number under the NPIs was reduced from 5.6 to less than one. NPIs in Jordan seem to be effective in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic and reducing the reproduction rate. Early strict intervention measures showed evidence of containing and suppressing the disease.

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“…A similar study conducted in Japan identified how, apart from healthcare facilities (where the largest number of infection clusters was identified), the largest number of virus outbreaks was identified in bars, restaurants, workplaces, gyms and public transport [67]. Different studies identified the connection between outbreaks of COVID-19 and venues with low ventilation rates or limited social distancing, such as meat and poultry facilities [68], trains [69], buses [70], cruise ships [71], choir rehearsal [72], bath centre [73], call centre [74], churches [75], fitness dance classes [76], mountain chalets [77], etc. Some actions involving the production of a significant amount of large droplets and small aerosols, such as singing, loud speaking, exercising, etc., were regarded as potentially responsible for these high rates of infection [67].…”

Section: Airborne Transmissionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An overview of solutions for airborne viral transmission reduction related to HVAC systems including liquid desiccant air-scrubbing

Giampieri¹,

Ling‐Chin²,

Ma³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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The world is facing on-going challenges due to the spread of the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which is affecting the health of people worldwide and the economy of countries. Social distancing, lockdown and quarantine measures have been implemented globally to limit the spread of the virus with a profound impact on people’s lives. These are interventions which are not considered to be permanent and reproducible in the long-term. As more evidence is growing around the airborne transmission routes of the virus, as previously identified for other viruses such as tuberculosis, measles, influenza and coronaviruses, the role of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in buildings, enclosed spaces and public transport in limiting the transmission of airborne pathogens has become a topic of significant relevance. Although the HVAC strategies recommended by professional engineering associations are capable of minimising the transmission of airborne pathogens, they are also responsible for an increase in energy consumption and possibly in a reduction of thermal comfort for occupants. The objective of the study is to review the role of HVAC in airborne viral transmission, to estimate the energy penalty associated with the implementation of the main HVAC strategies for transmission reduction and understand the potential of liquid desiccant technology as an air scrubber. That is capable to a) energy-efficiently control temperature and humidity in buildings, enclosed spaces and public transport; b) increase the indoor air quality by offering the conditions of temperature and humidity less favourable to the growth, proliferation and infectivity of microorganisms; and c) inactivate pathogens. The main factors involved in the process of the inactivation of viruses or pathogens by liquid desiccant solutions are also described together with possible modifications to the solutions to increase their heat and mass transfer and sanitising characteristics. The study is ended by an economic evaluation of the potential energy benefits resulting from the use of liquid desiccant technology. It is concluded that the technology could be particularly favourable in those buildings where humidity control and/or moisture removal is required or in buildings where viruses are more likely to be present, such as in healthcare facilities/operating rooms, or in the event of an airborne viral outbreak.

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Estimation of the probable outbreak size of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in social gathering events and industrial activities

Cited by 40 publications

References 29 publications

Risk factors for increased COVID-19 case-fatality in the United States: A county-level analysis during the first wave

Risk factors for increased COVID-19 case-fatality in the United States: A county-level analysis during the first wave

The Effect of Strict State Measures on the Epidemiologic Curve of COVID-19 Infection in the Context of a Developing Country: A Simulation from Jordan

An overview of solutions for airborne viral transmission reduction related to HVAC systems including liquid desiccant air-scrubbing

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