Conclusions The estimates indicate the magnitude and trajectory of the global tobacco pandemic and of the impact the authors could expect if evidence-based tobacco control policies were applied immediately and universally throughout the world. As half of lifetime smokers die of tobacco-related diseases, if MPOWER were applied globally, within a few decades, many millions of premature tobacco-related deaths would be avoided.

Although still a genuine source of public health concern, radon-induced lung cancer is likely to decline substantially, driven by reductions in smoking rates. Smoking decline will reduce radon deaths more that remediation of high-radon houses, a fact that policymakers should consider as they contemplate the future of cancer control.

We examined the effect of demographics on California's low smoking prevalence. We estimated that if the United States had the same demographics as California, then the US adult smoking prevalence in 2005 would have been 19.3%, 1.6 percentage points lower than the reported 20.9% for the United States, but 4.1 percentage points higher than California's prevalence of 15.2% in 2005. Tobacco control appears to be a much more important factor than demographics in determining California's low smoking rates.