Examining changes in abundance and demographic rates at species distribution margins may provide the first signs of broader species responses to environmental change. Still, the joint impact of space and time have remained relatively unstudied in most marginal regions. In order to examine the influence of climate variability on mussel distribution patterns, we monitored three sublittoral and marginal blue mussel (Mytilus trossulus) populations, spaced along a salinity gradient. Densities and biomasses peaked toward the saltier parts of the study area and showed relatively larger variations toward the low saline edge. Temporally, the areas showed a consistent increase in abundance after a synchronized large-scale recruitment event, which was followed by a decline in population size, occurring much faster toward the very range edge. Salinity, temperature, winter severity, and wave exposure explained most of the spatiotemporal variation in mussel abundances and adults showed positive effects on recruit abundance. We show empirically that the dynamics of edge populations are not driven by large changes in climate variables but that small spatial and temporal changes in key environmental variables have large and non-linear population level effects. Our results also show that fluctuating recruitment is a key factor for population stability affecting the storage potential of marginal populations, which dramatically decrease toward the edge. Our study provides a window into future population patterns and processes that drive marginal mussel populations in an altered sea characterized by rising temperature and declining salinity.
The climate on our planet is changing and the range distributions of organisms are shifting in response. In aquatic environments, species might not be able to redistribute poleward or into deeper water when temperatures rise because of barriers, reduced light availability, altered water chemistry or any combination of these. How species respond to climate change may depend on physiological adaptability, but also on the population dynamics of the species.
Density dependence is a ubiquitous force that governs population dynamics and regulates population growth, yet its connections to the impacts of climate change remain little known, especially in marine studies. Reductions in density below an environmental carrying capacity may cause compensatory increases in demographic parameters and population growth rate, hence masking the impacts of climate change on populations. On the other hand, climate‐driven deterioration of conditions may reduce environmental carrying capacities, making compensation less likely and populations more susceptible to the effects of stochastic processes.
Here we investigate the effects of climate change on Baltic blue mussels using a 17‐year dataset on population density. Using a Bayesian modelling framework, we investigate the impacts of climate change, assess the magnitude and effects of density dependence, and project the likelihood of population decline by the year 2030.
Our findings show negative impacts of warmer and less saline waters, both outcomes of climate change. We also show that density dependence increases the likelihood of population decline by subjecting the population to the detrimental effects of stochastic processes (i.e. low densities where random bad years can cause local extinction, negating the possibility for random good years to offset bad years).
We highlight the importance of understanding, and accounting for both density dependence and climate variation when predicting the impact of climate change on keystone species, such as the Baltic blue mussel.
Nodularin (NODLN) is a cyanobacterial hepatotoxin that may cause toxic effects at very low exposure levels. The NODLN-producing cyanobacterium Nodularia spumigena forms massive blooms in the northern Baltic Sea, especially during the summer. We analyzed liver and muscle (edible meat) samples from common eider (Somateria mollissima), roach (Rutilus rutilus L.), and flounder (Platichthys flesus L.) for NODLN-R by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry (LC-MS) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Thirty eiders, 11 roach, and 15 flounders were caught from the western Gulf of Finland between September 2002 and October 2004. Eiders from April to June 2003 were found dead. The majority of samples were analyzed by LC-MS and ELISA from the same sample extracts (water:methanol:n-butanol, 75:20:5, v:v:v). Nodularin was detected in 27 eiders, nine roach, and eight flounders. Eider liver samples contained NODLN up to approximately 200 microg/kg dry weight and muscle samples at approximately 20 microg/kg dry weight, roach liver samples 20 to 900 microg NODLN/kg dry weight and muscle samples 2 to 200 microg NODLN/kg dry weight, and flounder liver samples approximately 5 to 1,100 microg NODLN/kg dry weight and muscle samples up to 100 microg NODLN/kg dry weight. The NODLN concentrations found in individual muscle samples of flounders, eiders, and roach (1-200 microg NODLN/kg dry wt) indicate that screening and risk assessment of NODLN in Baltic Sea edible fish and wildlife are required for the protection of consumer's health.
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