The phenology of spring migration depends on the severity of the preceding winter and approaching spring. This severity can be quantified using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index; positive values indicate mild winters. Although milder winters are correlated with earlier migration in many birds in temperate regions, few studies have addressed how climate-induced variation in spring arrival relates to breeding success. In northern Europe, the NAO-index correlates with ice cover and timing of ice break-up of the Baltic Sea. Ice cover plays an important role for breeding waterfowl, since the timing of ice break-up constrains both spring arrival and onset of breeding. We studied the effects of the winter-NAO-index and timing of ice break-up on spring migration, laying date, clutch size, female body condition at hatching and fledging success of a shortdistance migrant common eider (Somateria mollissima) population from SW Finland, the Baltic Sea, 1991Sea, -2004Sea, (migration data 1979Sea, -2004. We also examined the correlation between the NAO-index and the proportion of juvenile eiders in the Danish hunting bag, which reflects the breeding success on a larger spatial scale. The body condition of breeding females and proportion of juveniles in the hunting bag showed significant positive correlations with the NAO, whereas arrival dates showed positive correlations and clutch size and fledging success showed negative correlations with the timing of ice break-up. The results suggest that climate, which also affects ice conditions, has an important effect on the fledging success of eiders. Outbreaks of duckling disease epidemics may be the primary mechanism underlying this effect. Eider females are in poorer condition after severe winters and cannot allocate as much resources to breeding, which may impair the immune defense of ducklings. Global climate warming is expected to increase the future breeding success of eiders in our study population.

Because population size is sensitive to changes in adult survival, adult survival may be buffered against environmental variability. Philopatry may be adaptive in changing environments, but it could also constrain breeding habitat selection under changing conditions such as shifting predation regimes. Habitat preference and quality could become decoupled in long-lived philopatric species that evolved in stable environments when suddenly faced by increased adult predation risk, as dispersal may be triggered by past reproductive failure. We evaluated whether the Baltic eider (Somateria m. mollissima) population may currently face a predation-induced ecological trap. Eiders are philopatric and nest on open and forested islands. We hypothesized that open-nesting females would be disproportionately affected by increased predation. We compared female annual survival in these two habitats in 1996-2010. We also tested for effects of time trends, winter severity (NAO), female body condition, and habitat-specific predation pressure on survival. Our results revealed the lowest survival recorded for this species (Φ = 0.720), and survival on open islands was significantly lower (Φ = 0.679) than on forested islands (Φ = 0.761). Nonetheless, only 0.7 % of females changed breeding habitat type despite ample availability of alternative islands, and breeding phenology in both habitats was similar. Female survival increased with body condition, while it was unrelated to winter climate and stable over time. Open islands had a higher predation pressure on incubating females. Breeding philopatry results in a predator-mediated ecological trap for open-nesting eiders. Our results contribute to explaining the drastic decline of the Baltic eider population.

Common eiders, Somateria mollissima, breed on two types of island in the Northern Baltic: open, sparsely vegetated islands and wooded islands with dense mixed forests. On open islands 79.8% of the nests were on open cliffs, exposed to wind and rain whereas on wooded islands 91.7% of the nests were sheltered inside dense spruce and pine thickets. We found that clutch size on open islands was significantly smaller than on wooded islands. Females started breeding simultaneously in the two habitats and they were similar in body size as measured by the length of the radio-ulna. During incubation females on open islands lost weight at a faster rate than females on wooded islands (34 g/day and 19 g/day, respectively). Heat loss is faster on open than wooded islands and therefore we suggest that the faster weight loss of females on open islands result from thermodynamically adverse incubation conditions. Because the eider is an extreme capital breeder, energy used for egg production cannot be used for incubation. To sustain a higher incubation cost on open islands, the optimal clutch size is therefore lower than on wooded islands.

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Examining changes in abundance and demographic rates at species distribution margins may provide the first signs of broader species responses to environmental change. Still, the joint impact of space and time have remained relatively unstudied in most marginal regions. In order to examine the influence of climate variability on mussel distribution patterns, we monitored three sublittoral and marginal blue mussel (Mytilus trossulus) populations, spaced along a salinity gradient. Densities and biomasses peaked toward the saltier parts of the study area and showed relatively larger variations toward the low saline edge. Temporally, the areas showed a consistent increase in abundance after a synchronized large-scale recruitment event, which was followed by a decline in population size, occurring much faster toward the very range edge. Salinity, temperature, winter severity, and wave exposure explained most of the spatiotemporal variation in mussel abundances and adults showed positive effects on recruit abundance. We show empirically that the dynamics of edge populations are not driven by large changes in climate variables but that small spatial and temporal changes in key environmental variables have large and non-linear population level effects. Our results also show that fluctuating recruitment is a key factor for population stability affecting the storage potential of marginal populations, which dramatically decrease toward the edge. Our study provides a window into future population patterns and processes that drive marginal mussel populations in an altered sea characterized by rising temperature and declining salinity.

Intermittent breeding may be adaptive for long-lived species subjected to large accessory reproductive costs, but it may also reflect reduced adaptation to the environment, reducing population growth. Nevertheless, environmental influences on breeding propensity, particularly that of predation risk, remain poorly understood and difficult to study, because non-breeders are typically not identified. Female eiders Somateria mollissima from the Baltic Sea provide an excellent testbed, because nesting females have been exposed to intensifying predation and growing male bias that may increase female harassment. We based our study on long-term data (14 years) on females captured and marked at the nest, and females individually identified at sea irrespective of capture status. We hypothesized that breeding propensity decreases with increasing predation risk and male bias, and increases with breeder age. Consistent with our hypotheses, females nesting on islands with higher nest predation risk were more likely to skip breeding, and breeding probability increased with age. In contrast, the steep temporal decline in breeding propensity could not be reliably attributed to annual adult sex ratio or to the abundance of white-tailed sea eagles (Haliaeetus albicilla), the main predator on females, at the nearby Hanko Bird Observatory. Breeding probability showed significant consistent individual variation. Our results demonstrate that spatiotemporal variation in predation risk affects the decision to breed and high incidence of non-breeding was associated with low fledging success. The increased frequency of intermittent breeding in this declining population should be explicitly considered in demographic models, and emphasis placed on understanding the preconditions for successful reproduction.

During 1997-1999, we collected serum samples from 156 common eider (Somateria mollissima) females incubating eggs in the Finnish archipelago of the Baltic Sea. We used serum chemistry profiles to evaluate metabolic changes in eiders during incubation and to compare the health and nutritional status of birds nesting at a breeding area where the eider population has declined by over 50% during the past decade, with birds nesting at two areas with stable populations. Several changes in serum chemistries were observed during incubation, including (1) decreases in serum glucose, total protein, albumin, beta-globulin, and gamma-globulin concentrations and (2) increases in serum uric acid, creatine kinase, and beta-hydroxybutyrate concentrations. However, these changes were not consistent throughout the 3-yr period, suggesting differences among years in the rate of carbohydrate, lipid, and protein utilization during incubation. The mean serum concentrations of free fatty acids, glycerol, and albumin were lowest and the serum alpha- and gamma-globulin levels were highest in the area where the eider population has declined, suggesting a role for nutrition and diseases in the population dynamics of Baltic eiders.