Statistically downscaled forecasts of October–December (OND) rainfall are evaluated over East Africa from two general circulation model (GCM) seasonal prediction systems. The method uses canonical correlation analysis to relate variability in predicted large-scale rainfall (characterizing, e.g., predicted ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole variability) to observed local variability over Kenya and Tanzania. Evaluation is performed for the period 1982–2011 and for the real-time forecast for OND 2015, a season when a strong El Niño was active. The seasonal forecast systems used are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (GFDL-FLOR) version of CM2.5. The Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS) rainfall dataset—a blend of in situ station observations and satellite estimates—was used at 5 km × 5 km resolution over Kenya and Tanzania as benchmark data for the downscaling. Results for the case-study forecast for OND 2015 show that downscaled output from both models adds realistic spatial detail relative to the coarser raw model output—albeit with some overestimation of rainfall that may have been derived from the downscaling procedure introducing a wet response to El Niño more typical of historical cases. Assessment of the downscaled forecasts over the 1982–2011 period shows positive long-term skill better than that documented in previous studies of unprocessed GCM forecasts for the region. Climate forecast downscaling is thus a key undertaking worldwide in the generation of more reliable products for sector specific application including agricultural planning and decision-making.
This paper reviews the progress in climate change adaptation and mitigation actions in sub-Saharan Africa farming systems. Farmers, organizations and Governments in the region have developed policies and innovations to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change. It appears that the developed and implemented innovative adaptive farming systems and technologies have culminated into resultant overall productivity improvement in farming systems, necessitating scaling up in order to widely strengthen the resilience and adaptive capacity of vulnerable communities to the impacts of climate change. Additionally, climate governance instruments that are aligned to the ratified international treaties have been developed and related programs have been rolled out in different countries. This offers hope for well-coordinated efforts and interventions for the mitigation and adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change on the environment and livelihoods. Observably, there is a pressing need to scale up climate smart innovations sustainably through creation of an enabling policy environment, capacity building, and conducting climate change related research and outreach, and effective dissemination of climate technologies and information, especially in remote areas in the region. Since climate change is a global issue, local initiatives and actions for mitigating and adapting to the adverse impacts ought to be well integrated into the broader international context.
<p>The landscape of climate services development and implementation is rapidly evolving and expanding across sectors and countries in the Eastern Africa region. However, very little is known about the how, when, if and by whom the climate information is used. To address this gap, we deployed an online regional survey across 11 countries in Eastern Africa with a wide range of information producers and users, and a total of 629 responses were received. This provided us a snapshot of the state of climate services in the region including an understanding on the use of existing services across countries and sectors provided by regional and national meteorological centres, the improvements required to increase their uptake and use as well as the new services needed. Our findings further revealed an appetite for sector and country specific tailored services alongside enhancement (skill, resolution, and visualisation), timely delivery products, and access to specific existing services. We also found that regional, national, and sub-national climate outlook forums can be further improved to provide not only timely seasonal climate information but to serve as an interface where sector experts and service users can benefit from iterative interactions. Our paper identifies opportunities for improving existing climate information products and services, as perceived by information users. Importantly, we identify how different channels of communication could be leveraged for the successful provision of existing climate services. This research, while novel in its scope, is important for informing future climate services research and implementation in this complex region of global importance.</p>
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