The current global economy faces pivotal changes in the system of its organization, which are essentially transforming relations between economic agents, government institutions, and the population of a particular country. Therefore, the study aims to quantitatively assess the level of transformations in the social, economic and political development of some European countries (Ukraine, France, Italy) using bifurcation theory for the period of 2000-2017. The proposed scientific and methodological approach to assessing the level of transformations in the social, economic and political development of a particular country involves the step-wise implementation: 1) the formation of an information base for the study, which involves collecting and testing statistical data for anomaly detection using the Irwin method, and selecting relevant indicators affecting the social, political and economic situation based on the principal component analysis; 2) the normalization of indicators of the political, economic and social situation using the Harrington’s approach; 3) the formation of integral indicators of the social, political and economic situation in the country based on the convolution of normalized indicators; 4) the determination of the dynamic properties of the social, political and economic situation in the country by constructing differential equations, which allows determining the existence of a bifurcation type (saddle, focus, node). The empirical study has shown that the indicator of stability of the political and social sphere of Italy was in disequilibrium and was subject to constant fluctuations. At the same time, the stability indicator of the social and economic component of Italy is characterized by an unstable state; and the external influence of negative factors will lead the system to imbalance. In Ukraine there is a stable political and economic and socioeconomic state of the system, i.e. negative impacts will lead the system to equilibrium and further positive development according to the components of the country. The development of the political and social sphere is characterized by the equilibrium state, and continues to develop according to the acquired tendency. The resulting methodological and practical developments will serve as a guide for the state authorities of the respective country for adjusting current macroeconomic policies and developing strategic plans for social and economic development.
The article uses the estimation method of the center of mass to model the country's health profile as an indicator for determining the prerequisites for the country's readiness to combat and prevent mass diseases. The authors identified the most relevant determinants that characterized society's social, economic, healthcare, and behavioral models. They formed a sequence of health profiles in the form of a four-pole barycentric model of balanced, composite dimensions. It was found that developed countries dominate according to the integrated value of the four dimensions. It indicates their significant economic, social, and medical opportunities for the population. According to the balance of dimension pairs, behavioral determinants influence the imbalance for developed countries, the health care determinants -for new industrial states. The pair of socio-economic development is the most critical for developing and the least developed countries. According to the resilience level, such countries as Ireland,
In the conditions of changes in social relations, trust becomes a relevant factor in human activity. Ensuring trust in public authorities is an urgent issue today, as a prerequisite for the socio-political and economic growth of the country. Quite often, it depends on the effectiveness of state regulation, namely, the adopted strategy of reform, the definition of strategic targets of state policy regarding the functioning of socio-political and economic institutions at the micro-, meso-, and macro- levels. The purpose of the article was to assess the relationship between the loss of trust in public authorities and the macroeconomic stability of Ukraine. The authors proposed a scientific and methodical approach to assessing the interdependence of relevant components: 1) a research base was formed, which involves collecting and checking determinants for abnormality by the Irwin method; 2) the relevant determinants of the macroeconomic component according to factor loadings are determined (by the stony scree graph); 3) normalization of determinants of macroeconomic development and indicators of distrust in public authorities based on Harrington's approach; 4) formation of integral indicators using the convolution method of calculating the geometric mean value; 5) regressive interdependencies between the loss of trust in public authorities and the macroeconomic stability of Ukraine are constructed. The obtained results made it possible to analyze the consequences of the crisis of confidence on macroeconomic stability. A high level of alienation between society and political institutions inhibits economic development, stable socio-political growth and macroeconomic stability of the country as a whole. The results will be useful for the activities of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the Office of the President of Ukraine, the Cabinet of Ministers, central bodies of executive and legislative power of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, and the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine.
Роботу виконано в межах науково-дослідної теми «Моделювання та прогнозування соціо-економіко-політичної дорожньої карти реформ в Україні для переходу на модель стійкого зростання» (номер державної реєстрації 0118U003569).
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