Background The current demographic trends indicate that breast cancer will pose an even greater public health concern in future for Pakistan. Details on the incidence, disease severity and mortality in respect of breast cancer are limited and without such data, therefore, future health policies or systems in respect of this disease cannot be strategically planned or implemented. The aim of this study was to examine past trends of age-specific breast cancer incidence rates (2004–2015), and to estimate the future volume of breast cancer cases in Karachi through the year 2025. Methods Two statistical methods, namely the functional time series models and the log-linear regression model were used; additionally, their real forecasting efficacy in epidemic time series was also evaluated. Results In the past, women aged 60–64 years had the highest overall breast cancer incidence rates, while from 2016 to 2025, large increases in breast cancer rates among women aged 50 to 64 years are expected. The total projected breast cancer incidence will increase by approximately 23.1% in 2020 to 60.7% in 2025. Cases of breast cancer diagnosed in younger women, aged 30–34 years, will increase from 70.7 to 130.6% in 2020 and 2025 relative to 2015. Conclusions The breast cancer incidence appeared to have been rising more rapidly among post-menopausal women (aged 55 to 59), while a stable increase in incidence in the youngest age group (15–29 years) of women is expected. The results also infer an expected increase in incidence cases of breast cancer among middle aged women in Karachi, Pakistan. An increase in the number of incident cases of cancer has implications for understanding the health-care needs of growing population and the subsequent demands on health-care system. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7330-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundUnhealthy behaviors are associated with mental health problems and violence in adolescents, yet their combined association has been understudied. Using the Global School Health Survey, this study examined the association between combined unhealthy behaviors (including fast food, soft drink, smoking, other tobacco products and physical inactivity) and anxiety, suicidal ideation and involvement in physical fight among Pakistani adolescents.MethodsData were obtained from the Global School Health Survey conducted in Pakistan (2009). The study population consisted of school going adolescents aged 13 to 15 years. Association of combined unhealthy behaviors with anxiety, suicidal ideation and involvement in physical fight were studied through secondary analysis. We used univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis by complex sample method, accounting for cluster sampling technique used for data collection.ResultsOf the total 4583 students, weighted percentage and unweighted count for one, two, three and four or more unhealthy behaviors was 39.4% (n = 1770), 22.1% (n = 963), 5.9% (n = 274) and 1.2% (n = 62) respectively. The weighted prevalence for anxiety, suicidal ideation and involvement in physical fight were 8.4%, 7.3% and 37.4% respectively. The results of multivariate logistic regression analysis after adjustment showed that students who had four or more unhealthy behaviors had higher odds of; being anxious (OR 2.45, 95%CI 1.31-4.59, p value 0.004), suicide ideation (OR 4.56, 95%CI 2.58-8.07, p value <0.001) and being involved in physical fight (OR 3.15, 95% CI 1.63–6.08, p value <0.001) as compared to those who had not adopted any unhealthy behaviors.ConclusionsThis study suggests that the co-occurrence of unhealthy behaviors is associated with anxiety, suicidal ideation and physical fight among adolescents. These findings should be considered when developing interventions to combat detrimental outcomes of unhealthy behaviors during adolescence.

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Malnutrition is a primary cause of child morbidity and mortality. The effects of maternal depressive symptoms on children's health, especially their nutritional status, have received less attention in developing countries but needs to be evaluated to understand the public health implications of maternal depression. The aim of the current study was to investigate the association between maternal depressive symptoms and children's nutritional status using data from low socioeconomic community in Pakistan. Maternal depressive symptoms defined as Aga Khan University Anxiety and Depression Scale score of 20 or greater was assessed for mothers with children under two years of age. Logistic regression models estimated the association between maternal depressive symptoms and stunting and underweight. Of 325 mothers, 40% scored positive on the depressive scale. The prevalence of stunting and underweight in children under two years was 36.6% and 35.4%, respectively. Maternal depressive symptoms were significantly associated with children being stunted and underweight. Mothers with depressive symptoms were more than three times likely to have stunted (odds ratio (OR) 3.15, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.91-5.18, p value < .001) and underweight (OR 3.26, 95% CI 1.99-5.34, p value < .001) children compared to non-depressed mothers. Maternal-related factors such as poor education, unemployment, and low household income were found to be significantly associated with higher odds of children's short stature and underweight.

Background: Bullying and violence are problems of aggression in adolescents. Healthy lifestyle practices are common health promotion approaches in school settings; however, their association with aggressive behaviours in school-going adolescents is less explored. Aims: This study examined the associations of healthy lifestyle behaviours including good hygiene, physical activity, recommended diet and refrainment from tobacco use with bully victimization and violence among adolescents. Methods: Data were obtained from the Global School Health Survey conducted in Pakistan (2009). The study population consisted of school-going adolescents aged 13 to 15 years. We constructed our final dataset using information from 4102 participants. Association of healthy lifestyle behaviours with bully victimization and violence experience were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Results: Results indicate lower odds of being bullied (good hygiene:

ObjectivesAreca nut is widely consumed in many parts of the world, especially in South and Southeast Asia, where cardiovascular disease (CVD) is also a huge burden. Among the forms of CVD, acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity. Research has shown areca nut chewing to be associated with diabetes, hypertension, oropharyngeal and esophageal cancers, and CVD, but little is known about mortality and re-hospitalization secondary to ACS among areca nut users and non-users. MethodsA prospective cohort was studied to quantify the effect of areca nut chewing on patients with newly diagnosed ACS by categorizing the study population into exposed and non-exposed groups according to baseline chewing status. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations of areca nut chewing with the risk of re-hospitalization and 30-day mortality secondary to ACS. ResultsOf the 384 ACS patients, 49.5% (n=190) were areca users. During 1-month of follow-up, 20.3% (n=78) deaths and 25.1% (n=96) re-hospitalizations occurred. A higher risk of re-hospitalization was found (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.29 to 3.27; p=0.002) in areca users than in non-users. Moreover, patients with severe disease were at a significantly higher risk of 30-day mortality (aHR, 2.77; 95% CI, 1.67 to 4.59; p<0.001) and re-hospitalization (aHR, 2.72; 95% CI, 1.73 to 4.26; p<0.001). ConclusionsThe 30-day re-hospitalization rate among ACS patients was found to be significantly higher in areca users and individuals with severe disease. These findings suggest that screening for a history of areca nut chewing may help to identify patients at a high risk for re-hospitalization due to secondary events.

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