Most statistical agencies consult with experts in some manner prior to formulating their assumptions about the future. Expert judgment is valuable when there is either a lack of good data, insufficient knowledge about underlying causal mechanisms, or apparent randomness in trends. In this paper, we describe the expert elicitation protocol developed by Statistics Canada in 2018 to inform the development of projection assumptions. The protocol may be useful for projection makers looking to adopt a formal approach to eliciting expert judgments, or for producing probabilistic projections, where it is necessary to obtain plausible estimates of uncertainty for components of population growth.
This paper aims to provide an overview of the population projections program at Statistics Canada, including its orientation, its strengths and challenges. We first identify some conceptual issues which have a bearing on how projections should be interpreted and evaluated. Then, we briefly review the past editions of Statistics Canada’s population projections and identify their main strengths and limitations. The evaluation considers the performance of previous projections at the national and provincial/territorial geographic levels and in terms of each of the major components of growth (fertility, mortality, and migration).
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