This paper aims to find the impact of outgoing president support to the winning probability of its endorsed candidate in presidential election, and predicts the winning probability of Jokowi’s endorsed candidate in Indonesia 2024 presidential election. By generalizing Obama, Vazquez, Uribe, SBY, Bachelet, Lula, and Duterte’s cases it is found that president candidates who endorsed by outgoing presidents with at least 50% public approval have 71% chance to winning the presidential election and 29% chance to lose, and with the public approval over 85% the probability is increase to 100%. The endorsed candidates who wins the election mostly were the minister of outgoing president whose contribute to the high approval ratings. Meanwhile, in the case of lost candidates the unfirm support from outgoing presiden and the candidate who already had been president with 28% approval ratings found as the causes. Through this generalization it is predicted that if Jokowi able to maintain his public approval rating at least 50%, and endorse one of his success ministers whom also come from the same party then in the 2024 Indonesia’s president election this candidate possibly will be the winner with 71% chance, also if his approval ratings reaching out over 85% the chance will be 100%.
This study aims to explain the principles of decentralization of the government of the Kingdom of Siak Sri Indrapura as one of the major kingdoms in the historical trajectory of the Riau and Indonesian governments which has a Constitution or official law for the administration of state government which is recognized by the Dutch East Indies Government. This study uses a qualitative method with a descriptive type and in the form of library research. In this study, the author attempts to read, understand, analyze, and interpret the book of Bab Al-Qawa'id. With this approach, type, and form of research, it will certainly be able to explain comprehensively about the principles of government decentralization that occurred during the heyday of the Siak Kingdom. The kingdom of Siak Sri Indrapura was founded in 1723 AD. Runs with a reign led by 12 Sultans. The peak of the glory of the Siak Sri Indrapura Kingdom began during the reign of the 11th Sultan, SultanSyarif Hasyim (1889-1908). It was during his reign that the book that prevailed in Siak was born and is a book that contains guidelines for the administration of the Siak Kingdom Government.
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