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This paper provides a Bayesian approach to statistical inference in the threshold autoregressive model for time series. The exact posterior distribution of the delay and threshold parameters is derived, as is the multi-step-ahead predictive density. The proposed methods are applied to the Wolfe's sunspot and Canadian lynx data sets.
The nature of the effect of media advertising on brand choice is investigated in two product categories in analyses that combine household scanner panel data with media exposure information. Alternative model specifications are tested in which advertising is assumed to directly affect brand utility, model error variance, and brand consideration. We find strong support for advertising effects on choice through an indirect route of consideration set formation that does not directly affect brand utility. Implications for media buying and advertising effects are explored.Bayesian analysis, threshold effects, determinants of utility
A brand choice model with heterogeneous price-threshold parameters is used to investigate a three-regime piecewise-linear stochastic utility function. The model is used to explore the relationships between aspects of consumer price sensitivity and price thresholds using hierarchical Bayes modeling with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. This study contributes to the modeling literature on discontinuous likelihoods in choice models. The empirical application using our scanner panel data set shows that the reference effect and loss aversion are more marked after price thresholds are taken into heterogeneous price response models. Furthermore, loss aversion is attenuated by using price thresholds than by an aggregate (homogeneity) model without price thresholds.
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